Finance and Economic

Pakistan must secure a loan from the International Monetary Fund within a week, the German foreign minister said Tuesday, as the country scrambles for aid to avert a run on its currency and a default on its international debt.

Without help, the fight against terrorism in the nuclear-armed nation could be complicated by out-of-control price increases, fewer jobs and rising public anger in the country of 160 million people.

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said Tuesday that Pakistan’s problems were so urgent it had no choice but to seek an IMF loan.

"I can only hope that the decision is taken quickly, because a loan in six months or six weeks will not help, but only if it is approved within the next six days," Steinmeier told reporters after talks here with Pakistani officials. "Then one can perhaps avoid the most difficult situation in Pakistan."

While Pakistan has already approached the IMF to help solve its balance of payments crisis, it has held out hope that it can raise about $5 billion from other lenders — avoiding an IMF austerity program.

Steinmeier said Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, and other countries were discussing a separate package of assistance for Pakistan to boost faltering economic growth.

"That is the only way to stabilize the situation," Steinmeier said. Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi said Steinmeier had been "very supportive" of Pakistan in talks with its foreign backers one hour cash loan. He did not mention the IMF.

High oil prices and dwindling overseas investment have left Pakistan with a yawning balance of payments deficit. The gap is draining its foreign currency reserves and pushing it toward a default on its international debt.

Pakistani officials had hoped to persuade allies such as the United States and Saudi Arabia, as well as institutions including the World Bank, to provide soft loans or accelerate pledged development aid.

But with many governments preoccupied with the global banking crisis, Pakistan has received no firm public commitments of assistance. An IMF program would be politically unpopular in Pakistan because it likely will come with tough conditions.

The government insists it already has taken action to slash unsustainable subsidies on food and fuel — measures that hurt in a country where about three-quarters of the population live on no more than $2 a day.

There is speculation that an IMF loan might come with demands to slash the government’s own budget, including defense spending. In a sign of the times, the army on Tuesday halted work on a new general headquarters in the capital, saying it "shares the nation’s quest for economic stability through a spirit of sacrifice."  

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KUWAIT CITY – Kuwait's Central Bank stepped in Sunday to prop up one of the country's biggest banks and said it was considering guaranteeing deposits in domestic banks – in one of the first concrete signs that the global financial crisis may next hit the oil-rich Gulf.

In Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, the government said it would deposit $2.7 billion into the Saudi Credit Bank to help lower-income citizens deal with financial difficulties, the country's Al-Ektisadiya newspaper reported.

The two moves came just a day after finance ministers from the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council held an emergency meeting to echo assurances, which they have repeatedly voiced over the past few weeks, that the region's banks face no liquidity crisis.

Kuwait's decision to stop trading in shares of Gulf Bank sent a shock wave through the country's bourse, which closed down almost 3.5 per cent and brought its year-to-date losses to over 19 per cent.

"The halting of Gulf Bank shares spread panic in the bourse today, because the government has been saying banks are safe from (global financial crisis) losses," said investor Ahmed al-Fadhli in a telephone interview.

The central bank order said trading in Gulf Bank shares would be suspended pending an investigation into the derivatives deals that caused the losses. The bourse's statement said some investors had balked at covering their losses, but neither the central bank nor Gulf Bank indicated the scope or timeframe of the bank's losses.

But one banking official with access to the information estimated the bank's losses at up to $749 million. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.

Over the past few weeks, Kuwaiti investors have voiced clear concerns about the market. One stockbroker unsuccessfully sued to temporarily close the bourse while other traders last week stormed out of the exchange, demanding the government intervene to halt their near-daily losses.

Investor al-Fadhli said about 40 brokers walked Sunday from the exchange to the nearby seaside Seif Palace, demanding to see the prime minister, Sheik Nasser Al Mohammed Al Sabah, to ask for more government intervention.

The Gulf Bank news further fuelled market turbulence in the broader GCC, not just in Kuwait, a tiny country which is far more dependent on oil revenue than many of its other Gulf counterparts.

Oman's stock exchange was down about 8.29 per cent while Qatar's exchange was off almost 9 per cent. Saudi's benchmark Tadawul index was down a moderate 3.06 per cent, a day after plummeting over 8 per cent.

Sunday is a normal business day in the Arab Mideast, which usually observes Friday as the weekend no teletrack payday loans.

So far, the Gulf countries have been thought to be protected from the crisis, in part because of the cushion of oil money many of them have built up during years of high oil prices. However, because most of the region's banking sector is privately held, not much is known about the institutions' true risk exposure levels.

The Gulf Bank news also appeared to have pushed the Kuwaiti government to take a step it has so far resisted – guaranteeing deposits. The country currently makes no deposit guarantees.

The central bank said it would propose an urgent bill to guarantee bank deposits in an effort to "boost confidence in our banking sector and enhance its ability to compete with banks in countries where deposits were guaranteed by the state" but gave few details on specifics.

The guarantee would cover local Kuwaiti banks.

The various Gulf countries have taken a range of measures to maintain market confidence, including cutting interest rates and pumping billions into their economies.

In tandem, officials have repeatedly said the region is not exposed to the kind of toxic debt that has led to massive losses in the United States and spread to other global markets.

But the move to deposit funds in the Saudi Credit Bank, to be used interest-free by lower-income Saudis, showed the push many of the GCC countries were undertaking to ensure that their citizens are not affected by the current international crisis.

Much of that effort is funded by the countries' massive cash surpluses, accrued from oil wealth. But with crude prices falling, analysts say some spending may be curtailed.

The draft bill to guarantee deposits could prove to be the necessary catalyst for stability, analysts said.

But some, including independent financial analyst Ali al-Nimesh, have criticized demands to stop trading, arguing that such a step was counterproductive and unnecessary since the daily losses have not exceeded 4 per cent, compared to a more than 8 per cent drop in the benchmark Saudi Tadawul index on Saturday, for example.

"Unfortunately, Kuwaitis have been used to demanding help and getting it … and parliament has played a negative role in this," al-Nimesh said.

Legislators have passed pay hikes and set up a state fund to buy bad consumer debts despite strong Cabinet opposition.

The government believes oil revenues should be used for development instead of "popular" demands that do not take into consideration that oil prices might fall sharply, dragging down state revenues in tow.

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Asian and European leaders closed ranks on Saturday to try to bolster the confidence of shell-shocked investors fearful that the year-long global credit crunch is mutating into a worldwide recession.

Poor economic data around the world and another international barrage of corporate profit warnings and job cuts triggered a brutal sell-off in stocks from Tokyo to New York.

“The danger of a collapse (on financial markets) is far from over. Any all-clear would be wrong,” German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck said in an interview released on Saturday.

“We are still in a dangerous situation. I am not going to mislead anyone and say: we have got everything under control,” he told Bild am Sonntag newspaper.

The worries of political leaders were mirrored in the markets how to get a free credit report.

Seventy-nine years to the day after the 1929 crash that ushered in the Great Depression, currencies experienced extreme volatility, while oil and other commodities tumbled on fears of plummeting demand that would accompany a slowdown.

Many analysts declared that Europe was in recession after private-sector activity in the euro zone’s economy contracted at the fastest pace in at least a decade and Britain’s economy shrank 0.5 percent in the third quarter, much more than expected.

“The euro area has entered a deep recessionary spiral,” said Aurelio Maccario, chief euro zone economist at Italian bank UniCredit. 

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A majority of Americans aren’t happy with the way Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is handling his job or with the financial rescue package he and Congress created, according to a poll released Wednesday.

Of 1,058 people surveyed in a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll, 64% said they disapproved of Paulson’s performance and 28% said they approved. The poll was conducted on Oct. 17-19 and the margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The Treasury secretary, however, fared better than the president has recently. In an earlier poll, 72% of Americans said they disapproved of the way President Bush is handling his job.

A majority in the latest poll - 56% - said they also oppose the financial rescue package passed by Congress earlier this month. That package allows Treasury to buy troubled assets to stabilize the financial system.

In particular, 53% of Americans polled said they thought a major action taken as a result of that package - Uncle Sam providing capital to banks and other financial institutions in exchange for an equity stake in those companies - is a bad idea.

Fifty-eight percent also think the idea of the government providing financial assistance to keep a big company in business in exchange for a stake in that company is also a bad idea.

The Treasury has stepped in to help giant insurer American International Group (AIG, Fortune 500), which has received more than $100 billion in government loans check cash advance. It has also taken over and agreed to provide funding for mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

There is one financial rescue strategy that won support in the poll: 58% of those polled said they favored government assistance to homeowners who can’t pay their mortgages.

The financial rescue package requires the government to encourage lenders to modify mortgages in cases where the government holds at least a partial stake in a mortgage-backed security. And in cases where the government buys loans directly, it may modify the loans on its own.

On Oct. 1, the Federal Housing Administration launched a program to encourage lenders to write down loans to below a home’s appraised value in exchange for refinancing a troubled borrower into an FHA-backed loan.

Early reports on that program, however, suggest that any positive effect on foreclosures may take time.

Meanwhile, FDIC Chairwoman Sheila Bair, who was instrumental in working on the financial rescue package provisions, has said publicly she thinks the government now needs to do more to help struggling homeowners. 

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American International Group’s CEO said Monday that the troubled insurer should start selling off pieces of its sprawling global business by year end.

Some 15 to 20 buyers may each walk away with a unit of the troubled insurer, Chief Executive Edward Liddy told CNNMoney.com.

Liddy declined to comment on the prices the divisions are commanding, saying it is "too soon." But he expects to be able to repay the $85 billion government loan AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) received last month to keep it afloat as it unwinds its $1 trillion in assets.

"We were in a heck of a mess," Liddy said. "It’s solvable. We can work our way out of it."

Liddy took charge of the company after the Federal Reserve arranged the unusual financing to prevent further turmoil in the already strained financial markets. In return, the government took a 79.9% stake in the company and gave the AIG two years to repay the debt by selling its assets.

The company does not expect to need additional financing beyond the $85 billion to continue operating, Liddy said. It has already drawn down $69 billion of that loan.

The Federal Reserve of New York said Oct. 8 that it would lend AIG up to $37.8 billion in exchange for investment-grade, fixed-income collateral.

The second loan was needed because AIG couldn’t access the frozen credit markets to fund its daily operations, Liddy said. Depending on how the capital markets value its securities assets in the future, it might need more, he said payday advance lender.

Liddy has spent the last month deciding which parts of the company to sell. In early October, the beleaguered insurance giant announced it would hold onto its property and casualty insurance businesses and retain a majority stake in its foreign life insurance operations. The property and casualty lines bring in more than $40 billion in revenue annually.

Everything else is on the table, Liddy said. The businesses include its aircraft leasing unit, asset management division, retirement services and U.S. life insurance operations.

Liddy said he regrets the company threw a $440,000 one-week retreat at the St. Regis Resort in Monarch Beach near San Diego, Calif., just days after the bailout. He said he was not aware of the junket at the time, but would look into recouping the costs and disciplining those involved.

AIG agreed Thursday to curb such expenditures after heavy criticism from Congress and New York state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo. The company canceled 160 conferences and events - some that carried price tags of as much as $750,000. It also has put on hold a nearly $10 million severance payment to outgoing chief financial officer Steven Bensinger.

"I apologize to the American people for those things," Liddy said on CNN. "They were terribly insensitive."  

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General Motors Corp is pushing ahead with talks to acquire Chrysler LLC in a deal that the automaker sees as a way to boost its cash position at a time when it has been shut out of debt markets and its own revenues are tumbling, sources said.

The negotiations involving Cerberus Capital Management, Chrysler’s private equity owner, have intensified in recent days and are moving closer toward a conclusion, according to people briefed on the talks who asked not to be identified.

The prospect of merging Chrysler and GM has been viewed as a deal of desperation by most analysts since both automakers are losing money and are saddled with a cash-draining surplus of American dealers, workers and plants.

But GM executives believes the automaker could clinch a deal that would give it a share of Chrysler’s remaining cash while allowing it to cut costs quickly, the sources said no qualifying payday advance.

Although it does not report financial information, Cerberus has said Chrysler ended June with $11.7 billion.

Chrysler has 14 assembly plants and the expectation is that many of those would be in danger of being shut if it merges.

Once the deal closes, GM is only interested in keeping Chrysler plants where the No. 3 U.S. automaker has made significant investments in retooling, the sources said.

That could include Chrysler’s truck plant in Saltillo, Mexico, the Jefferson North Jeep plant in Detroit and its Belvidere, Illinois car assembly plant, one source briefed on the talks said. The sources were not authorized to discuss the talks since the companies are saying nothing on the record. 

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The Dow ended its worst week ever Friday and capped a staggering eight-session selloff that has seen the blue-chip index fall 2,400 points.

Investors could be in for another rough ride as Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) and Merrill Lynch (MER, Fortune 500) are on tap to report results this week, giving another glimpse into just how deep their losses continue to be. And a slew of economic reports are also due out, including readings on consumer spending and housing.

Much of the Dow’s loss occurred over the most recent sessions as the global credit market crisis intensfied. In fact, last week the Dow fell just over 1,874 points, or 18%. The index has lost nearly 22% over the last eight sessions, as panicked investors ditched stocks across the board.

That panic also gripped the global markets, which have seen some brutal selloffs of their own.

"The magnitude of what’s going on is unprecedented and people are frightened," said Robert Philips, senior portfolio strategist at BLB&B Advisors.

Finance ministers from the Group of Seven nations said Friday that exceptional steps were needed to ease the global financial crisis and get money flowing again.

And early Saturday, the G-7 vowed to work together to stem the criris. Later in the day, the International Monetary Fund soundly endorsed the G-7 commiment, with IMF managing director Dominique Strauss-Kahn saying the crisis "had pushed the global financial system to the brink of systemic meltdown."

Wall Street lost roughly $2.4 trillion in market value during the week, according to losses in the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000, the broadest measure of the market.

And investor fear surged to record levels, with the CBOE Volatility (VIX) index, or the VIX, hitting a record just shy of 77 Friday, before closing a bit off those levels.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) ended Friday’s session down just 128 points, after falling as much as 697 points in the morning. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (SPX) index also declined Friday and for eight sessions in a row. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) ended barely higher, following seven down sessions.

Paralyzing fear. Banks have clamped down on capital, with credit markets remaining frozen and several measures of bank nervousness hitting all-time highs. Treasury prices slumped, boosting the corresponding yields as investors no longer bet that government debt was necessarily so much safer than stocks. The dollar recovered versus other major currencies. And oil, gold and other commodities plunged on bets that slowing global demand will hurt oil usage.

"Investors are the most fearful they’ve ever been," said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors.

The heightened volatility that has left investors seasick was evident in Friday’s market. In the first five minutes of trade Friday the Dow plunged 697 points, falling below 7,900 to the lowest point since March 17, 2003. The Nasdaq and S&P also hit more than five-year lows. But stocks recovered abruptly, with the Dow erasing losses. The afternoon saw the Dow make violent swings back and forth, toppling as much as 600 points and rising as much as 322 points.

Stocks have plunged despite a series of efforts on the part of the government to unfreeze the credit markets and get money flowing through the system again.

"Fear is feeding upon itself and nothing the officials have done to this point seems to stem the tide," said Ryan Atkinson, market analyst at Balestra Capital.

Last week, the Fed announced an emergency rate cut, coordinated with banks around the world. The central bank has also pumped billions into the system. But the moves have hardly made a dent in investor sentiment.

"Central banks of the world have been flooding the markets with liquidity, but banks are hoarding cash," Atkinson said. "This is the lynchpin of the entire financial system and as long as this is still going on, the markets will be driven by fear."

On Friday, President Bush said that the government will continue to work to resolve the economic crisis to return stability to the markets. Meanwhile, House Democrats are meeting Monday to discuss a potential second economic stimulus package, although House Republicans are reportedly skeptical of a second package, CNN reports.

Looking for a bottom: Stocks have been in a bear market for most of the year, but the selling began accelerating in September following a series of bank failures and mergers.

Since hitting all-time highs a year ago, the Dow has lost just over 40% and the S&P 500 has lost 43% bad credit payday advance. The Nasdaq has not come close to reclaiming its tech-bubble record, but it did hit multi-year highs last October. Since then, the Nasdaq has fallen just over 42%.

And investors across the board are pulling money out of equities, with $43.3 billion pulled out of stock mutual funds during the week ended Oct. 8, according to TrimTabs Research.

"To some extent, we are seeing a retail investor capitulation," said Kelli Hill, portfolio manager at Ashfield Capital Partners. "And when everyone is getting out, that suggests we’re getting closer to finding a bottom," she said.

Wall Street was last in a bear market between 2000 and 2002 amid the end of the tech bubble, a recession and the terrorist attacks on 9/11. But stocks bottomed in October 2002 and then again in March 2003, leading to a more than four-year bull market.

On Friday, the three major stock gauges fell to within shouting distance of that March 2003 bottom. Some market pros are wondering if that 2003 level could turn out to be the bottom for the 2008 bear market also. (Full story)

However, bottoms are often "retested," meaning stocks fall to a low, bounce for a few days or even months, then fall back to right around that low, before making a bigger, more sustained advance off the low.

That’s what happened in the last bear market. Stocks bottomed in early October 2002, bounced a little bit in the lead up to the start of the Iraq war and then retested those lows in March of 2003 before moving higher.

Either way, the analysts spoken with agree that when the market does finally put a bottom in place, it will lead to an extensive rally.

One comfort for investors is the knowledge that there are limits to how low the Dow can go, thanks to rules put in place in the aftermath of the crash of Oct. 19, 1987, when the Dow plunged 22.6%. The NYSE has rules to halt trading if the Dow loses 10%, 20% or 30% in a single day. Trading is halted for 30 minutes, an hour or two hours, depending on the time of day. Trading is over for the day if the Dow loses 30%.

The Dow’s 22% decline roughly compares with the two-day slide in the crash of 1929. On Oct. 28, 1929, the Dow fell 12.8% and it It fell an additional 11.7% the next day, according to Stock Trader’s Almanac.

Bear vs. Bull: Looking for a bottom

Credit markets frozen: Amid the ongoing crisis, lending has dried up, making it difficult for businesses to function on a daily basis and for consumers to get loans.

The TED spread, the difference between what banks pay to borrow from each other for three months and what the Treasury pays, spiked to an all-time high of 4.65% Friday before pulling back slightly.

The wider the spread, the more reluctant banks are to lend to each other, rather than from the federal government. When markets are fairly calm, banks charge each other premiums that are not much higher than the U.S. government.

Three-month Libor, or what banks charge each other to borrow for three months, rose to a 2008 high of 4.82% Friday.

The yield on the 3-month Treasury bill, seen by many as the safest place to put money in the short term, fell to 0.24% from 0.5% Thursday, with panicked investors willing to take a piddling return on their money rather than risk stocks. Last month, the yield on the 3-month bill skidded to a 68-year low around 0%.

But in a sign that banks were willing to take a chance on near-term lending, Libor, the overnight bank lending rate, eased to 2.47% Friday from 5.09% Thursday, according to Bloomberg.com. Libor was at 2.15% a month ago.

Treasury prices slipped at the end of the week, raising the yields. The benchmark 10-year note ended Friday’s shortened session at 3.88%. Treasury bond markets closed early Friday and are closed Monday for Columbus Day.

Other markets: Oil prices plunged $8.89 a barrel Friday, the second biggest decline ever, to settle at $77.70 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, a 13-month low.

Oil prices have tumbled on bets of slowing demand since the price of crude hit an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on July 11.

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The Canadian dollar suffered its biggest one-day drop in almost 38 years and oil slid below $78 (U.S.) a barrel yesterday as investors continued panic selling across the board on global markets.

"The dollar is in free fall along with commodity prices," said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

"It’s ongoing fear that we’re heading for a global recession, and probably a deep one," he said.

When all was said and done, the S&P/TSX composite index shaved another stunning 535.02 points to close at 9065.16 for a loss of 16 per cent this week.

The Dow Jones industrial average, down nearly 700 points at one point in trading, lost 128 points to close at 8,451.19, rounding out its worst week ever.

"This is unprecedented. We don’t know when it’s going to end," said Guatieri.

"This could be a repeat of the early 1980s. It was pretty bleak for years."

Kate Warne, Canadian market specialist at Edward Jones in St. Louis, said emotions are driving behaviour in the market.

"Typically, we don’t see this kind of fear-based selling continue day after day like we’ve seen so far, but no one knows what the catalyst will be to turn sentiment around," Warne said.

"It’s very difficult to see what will change that, but we know historically it changes quite quickly and that what you tend to see is the emotions swing in the other direction just as dramatically as it’s been on the fear side so far."

As brutal as the markets looked though, most Canadians had their eyes on the ailing loonie, which at one point plunged almost five cents – its biggest drop ever – before settling halfway back.

It closed down 2.59 cents (U.S.) to 84.69 cents. The loonie has lost 7.77 cents, or 8.4 per cent, this past week alone as the U.S. dollar strengthens and as investors continue to bail out of the market on continued fears of economic instability.

"The prospects for the global economy seem to be dwindling fast and, as a result, the prospects for commodity markets are also ebbing and that’s weighing very heavily on the dollar," said Michael Gregory, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

"Even China, the engine of global growth, cut interest rates this week hoping to stave off lower growth there. The prospects are looking quite dim for commodities."

And the collapse in oil markets accelerated yesterday as investors grew more pessimistic about a mushrooming global crisis.

Light, sweet crude for November delivery fell $8.63 to settle at $77.99 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Even gold, normally the safe haven in times of turmoil, didn’t escape unscathed, falling $27.70 to close at $855.40 in New York as investors sold the metal to cover losses in the equity markets.

With files from The Canadian Press

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Drugstore chain Walgreen Co. has withdrawn its $2.8 billion bid to acquire Longs Drug Stores, apparently helping to ease the path for Longs’ $2.7 billion acquisition by CVS Caremark Corp.

Longs had already accepted CVS Caremark Corp.’s lower bid of $71.50 per share, a deal already approved by antitrust regulators.

Walgreen Chief Executive Jeffrey Rein sent a letter to Longs’ board of directors informing them of Walgreen’s decision to withdraw its bid. He cited what he called Longs’ board’s refusal to "engage in a constructive dialogue" as well as the broad financial meltdown as reasons for the withdrawal.

Some had questioned whether Walgreen would face antitrust issues because of overlap between its West Coast stores and Longs’. Longs said on Sept. 26 that the Federal Trade Commission was investigating whether a Walgreen acquisition would reduce competition among retail pharmacies in parts of California, Nevada and Hawaii, where Longs has most of its stores.

Some Longs shareholders have criticized the CVS deal, saying it may undervalue Longs’ real estate.

Major shareholder Advisory Research has not decided if it will tender its shares in favor of the CVS bid but has questioned the deal direct faxless payday loans. Another major shareholder, Pershing Square Capital Research, has said it is against the CVS deal. The two firms combined own about 18% of Longs shares, and the deal requires approval from shareholders owning two-thirds of Longs stock.

Longs, based in Walnut Creek, Calif., has more than 500 stores, mostly in California, but also in Hawaii, Nevada and Arizona. The company also owns Rx America, a prescription benefits management program with more than 8 million members.

The deal would give CVS, which already has a large presence in Southern California, a deeper foothold into the northern part of that state.

Messages left with representatives of Longs and CVS were not immediately returned.

Shares of Deerfield, Ill.-based Walgreen (WAG, Fortune 500) rose 7 cents to $26.25 in after-hours trading following the announcement, while Longs (LDG, Fortune 500) shares fell $2.48 to $69.20. Shares of Woonsocket, R.I.-based CVS (CVS, Fortune 500) were unchanged after-hours after rising 71 cents to $29.84 in the regular session. 

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If there’s one bright spot in a bad economy, it’s that gasoline prices have fallen, and they’re expected to drop even further.

As the global economy falters, demand for oil has dropped. And since the price of oil makes up about half of the cost of a gallon of gas, analysts see more relief ahead at the pump.

"We ought to see prices drop pretty quickly," said American Automobile Association spokesman Geoff Sundstrom. "We’re well on our way to $3 gas within the next week or two."

The national average price for a gallon of regular, unleaded gasoline fell 2.4 cents to $3.480 from $3.504, according to a daily survey released Tuesday by AAA. That’s down 18% from an all-time high of $4.114 a gallon hit on July 17.

Gas prices rebounded last month when hurricanes Ike and Gustav passed through the Gulf Coast where the bulk of the nation’s oil refineries are located.

While the damage was not as extensive as some had expected, the storms caused a short-lived spike in oil and gas prices.

On Sept. 17, after Hurricane Ike passed through the Gulf region, the national average gas price was a full 35 cents higher than Monday’s price.

"But now that refineries are back online and more product is available, prices have no where to go but down," Sundstrom said (paydayloans).

"Demand seems to be drying up week by week," he added. And given the challenging economic environment and the strains on household budgets, Sundstrom expects American drivers to remain conservative.

Crude tumbled more than $6 on Monday to close at an 8-month low of $87.81 a barrel. That’s down 40% from its July peak of $147.27 a barrel.

"Since crude makes up about 50% of the price of gas, gas prices should go down," said Ray Carbone, president of New York commodities trading firm Paramount Options.

Carbone added that gas prices have not fallen as dramatically as crude prices because refinery utilization has been low due to last month’s hurricanes.

Still, hurricane season does not end until November and oil prices are notoriously volatile, notes AAA spokesman Troy Green. He cautioned that gas prices will continue to fall "only if conditions continue to improve in refinery capacity and oil continues to retreat." 

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