Finance and Economic

Bank of Japan board members were divided over how financial markets might interpret their range for price stability in December, minutes show.

Some members said it “might be acceptable” for investors and traders to see the inflation range of up to 2 percent as indicating the duration for maintaining the central bank’s low interest-rate policy, according to minutes of the Dec. 17-18 meeting released today in Tokyo. Another member said the range “wasn’t aimed at the so-called policy duration effect.”

Bank of Japan policy makers this week affirmed their forecasts that consumer prices will keep falling through March 2012, marking a third consecutive year of declines. Keisuke Tsumura, a parliamentary secretary at the Cabinet Office, said yesterday that he assumes the BOJ’s range is “effectively inflation targeting” and indicates the bank is far from ending its accommodative monetary stance.

“Given that the Bank of Japan predicted prices won’t rise for a few more years, it can’t be helped that the range is regarded as some kind of policy commitment,” said Mari Iwashita, chief market economist at Nikko Cordial Securities Inc. in Tokyo.

Japan’s central bank has kept interest rates at 0.1 percent since December 2008 as the country grapples with deflation. Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 1.3 percent in December from a year earlier, a 10th monthly decline, government figures showed today.

Deflation Spurs Bonds

Bond yields are close to the lowest level this year as signs that deflation will linger underpin demand for government debt. The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond was at 1.315 percent as of the morning close in Tokyo after earlier reaching 1.305 percent, the lowest since Jan. 4.

BOJ policy makers said at last month’s meeting that they consider consumer prices to be stable as long as they stay in a positive range of 2 percent or below over the medium to long term. The board said it “doesn’t tolerate” price declines and the median estimate is about 1 percent.

Kazumasa Iwata, a deputy governor until 2008, speaking at the same event as Tsumura yesterday said the bank’s range is vague and policy makers should clearly state that they consider prices to be stable is 1 percent.

Variety of Risks

Some members said the bank needs to assess a variety of risks when it sets policy, not just price stability. The board should consider factors such as asset prices and imbalances in financial markets, taking a lesson from “the experience of the recent global financial crisis,” the minutes show.

The central bank has specified policy-duration commitments in the past. When it introduced a quantitative-easing policy of pumping cash into the banking system in March 2001, it said the measure would remain until consumer prices stopped falling.

The central bank today also released minutes from a Dec. 1 emergency meeting at which it unveiled a 10 trillion yen ($112 billion) credit program.

At that gathering, the board judged that reducing short- term interest rates would be the most effective way to support the recovery and concluded that a volatile yen poses a threat to the economy, the minutes show.

“Given that the overnight call rate had been virtually at zero percent, encouraging a further decline in interest rates on term instruments in the money market would be most effective” to guide borrowing costs lower, many members said.

Surging Yen

The central bank introduced the facility for commercial lenders after the yen reached a 14-year high against the dollar and Cabinet ministers urged it to step up its fight against deflation. Governor Masaaki Shirakawa has said the bank can lend beyond the limit should demand for the program increase.

“The Bank of Japan still has policy options, and the first choice is probably to increase the size of the loan program or extend the period of lending,” said Kyohei Morita, chief economist at Barclays Capital in Tokyo.

One board member said recent discussions about Japan’s deflation might have “negative effects on household and business confidence” and “intensify the downward pressure on economic activity,” the minutes show.

The government in November declared a state of deflation for the first time in three years, and Finance Minister Naoto Kan has been leading calls for the central bank to do more to stem price declines.

More households are expecting prices to fall over the next year, a central bank survey showed this month. The government’s declaration was a “big factor” in fueling people’s expectations for lower prices, said Izuru Kato, chief market economist at Totan Research Co. in Tokyo.

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Imagine, in an alternate universe, Ontario had been in lengthy negotiations with Samsung Group to bring 16,000 green-collar jobs to the province, part of an ambitious plan by the Korean industrial giant to manufacture and deploy green-energy gear.

But at the 11th hour the province fails to step up and Samsung goes with Michigan, New York or Ohio instead.

Opposition parties would be accusing the McGuinty government of "losing jobs to the Americans." Industry groups would be calling Ontario a laggard without vision or guts.

Now, back to this universe. Ontario is the winner.

It kept a $7 billion clean-energy deal from flowing south, and it did it by putting the right regulations and policies in place to attract that investment.

Samsung, which has committed to building four manufacturing plants in Ontario and developing 2,500 megawatts of wind and solar projects, said it and its consortium partners were lured to Ontario because this province’s new Green Energy Act and feed-in-tariff program stood out in North America.

The response so far?

Boos from the opposition, which is accusing the government of cutting a backroom deal with a foreign company that will lead to higher electricity prices.

This kind of rhetoric ignores the fact that we’re living in 2010, not 1960.

Electricity infrastructure is aging and replacing it is going to cost more – more so in a world that puts a price on carbon emissions.

The days of cheap, dirty electricity are coming to an end. There’s no way around it.

Another reaction to the Samsung deal has been panic from local power producers, including wind and solar developers, who argue they’re being treated unfairly because of special treatment given to Samsung.

Samsung is getting roughly 4 per cent more for the solar and wind power it produces than other participants in Ontario’s feed-in-tariff (FIT) program, which already pays a generous amount to producers of renewable electricity.

The government calls this extra incentive an "economic adder," which is used as a flexible negotiating tool – not unlike tax breaks used to lure foreign investment.

It’s expected this adder, which over 25 years has a net-present value of $437 million, will contribute $1.60 more a year to the average residential electricity bill.

Put another way, that’s an increase of 0.15 per cent on the power bill of a typical household.

As one industry observer said, that’s the cost of paying for a large double-double at Tim Horton’s once a year.

The $437 million also comes with many strings attached. If Samsung and its consortium partners don’t deliver on manufacturing and jobs, then they forfeit the adder.

A legitimate question, however, is whether other parties can qualify for the same kind of economic adder granted to Samsung.

At least two other consortia, both based primarily in Ontario, are attempting to establish supply chains in the province to manufacture wind turbines and create thousands of jobs.

They may not have a long track record, and they may lack the brand power and deep pockets of a Samsung, but they are local companies deserving of local support and the confidence of their own government.

Premier Dalton McGuinty made clear last week that if any other consortia – local or foreign – want to talk about manufacturing, energy development and job creation on a large scale, then he’s all ears online payday loans.

He should be held to those words, for the sake of fairness.

Speaking of fairness, why has 500 megawatts of transmission capacity been set aside for the Korean consortium when everyone else has to duke it out for access?

The industry protest on this point is understandable.

The whole point of the Green Energy Act and FIT program is to provide equal access to the grid and electricity rates that are the same for all participants.

Only 2,500 megawatts of transmission capacity are available in Ontario, and they’re particularly scarce in the areas of southwest Ontario where Samsung is being given priority.

Other developers waiting patiently for grid access see the Korean giant as a VIP being shuffled to the front of the line. They’re angry.

But on further reflection, taking this position is akin to saying the government doesn’t have a right to reserve transmission for any big project, like a natural gas power plant?

In fact, it did exactly that when it negotiated a deal to have Sithe Global, a large U.S. power developer, build an 840-megawatt natural gas plant in Brampton. It may be a hard pill for some to swallow, but why is the Samsung deal any different? Critics, however, have another concern. They charge that the McGuinty government broke protocol by striking a sole-sourced deal with Samsung. The insinuation here is that a request for proposals should have been put out so Samsung’s rivals could submit competing bids. Opposition parties, for example, are already calling this another e-health scandal in waiting.

The leap of logic here is mind-boggling. Governments put out tenders for specific things, like fleet vehicles, office equipment and IT systems as a way to notify industry of a particular need. The vague but ongoing task of building the economy and creating jobs, on the other hand, is an open invitation to anyone with a proposal, and you can bet those proposals are being shopped around to other job-hungry jurisdictions.

We’re in a seller’s market. This isn’t about Ontario ensuring competition. This is about Ontario having to desperately compete for jobs during difficult economic times.

Indeed, the province’s strategy in this regard is quite clever, even if it is somewhat sneaky. Think about it. There appears nothing in this Samsung deal that impacts the budget. The McGuinty government is, in effect, using electricity rates to cover the cost of a major economic development strategy – kind of like adding a special fee on gasoline sales to lure a major automaker to the province.

A controversial approach to be sure, particularly with the HST coming to our hydro bills in July, but certainly this is one creative way of investing in jobs without adding to a record provincial deficit.

The Samsung deal isn’t perfect, but it’s pretty darn good. Now, Mr. Premier, you just need to open your ears and land a couple of large local deals. They’re out there, in your own backyard. You just have to listen and have a little faith in Ontario entrepreneurs.

thamilton@thestar.ca

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For the first time in a decade, Pennsylvania's bridges are actually getting healthier. That is, the number of structurally deficient bridges has decreased from a high of 6,035 in 2008 to 5,646, according to the latest rankings from the state's Department of Transportation.

Pennsylvania's focus on bridge repair has been building, beginning with the accelerated bridge program which identified 411 needy structures for repair in 2009, but actually bid 470 with another 403 bridges expected to be under contract by the end of the fiscal year.

When the federal Recovery Act came around in early 2009, dishing out $1.026 billion for transportation infrastructure to Pennsylvania, the state quickly identified another 476 crossings for repairs fast cash.

"We're making headway," said PennDOT spokesman Rich Kirkpatrick.

But much more work, not least of which will involve securing funding for bridge repairs, remains ahead.

The state is working against an infrastructure that's older than in most other parts of the country.

Almost half of its 25,322 bridges were built 50 years ago or more.

That's more than twice the national average.

Click here for a searchable database of Pennsylvania's bridges, and their current conditions.

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California is hurtling into the budgetary abyss — and it’s not alone.

Across the nation, state tax collections in the first three quarters of 2009 posted their steepest decline in at least 46 years, according to a report this month from the public policy research arm of the State University of New York.

At least 30 states raised taxes in their most recently completed fiscal year — which ended in most cases in mid-2009. Even more cut services. All told, states raised $117 billion to fill last year’s budget gaps, the Pew Center on the States estimates.

Yet despite all those new taxes and deep cutbacks, pressure on state finances continues to build. Economists warn that without a new round of federal stimulus spending, states could face another round of layoffs that could kneecap an already shaky economic recovery.

"We could see a real ripple effect if the states don’t take a balanced approach" by balancing cutbacks with tax raises and other new revenue, said Jon Shure, deputy director of the state fiscal project at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities in Washington.

State and local governments have cut 132,000 jobs since August 2008, the center says. Fiscal problems appear most acute in California, whose general obligation bonds were downgraded this week after Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger declared a fiscal emergency.

The state has already said it will increase tuition by a third in the University of California system, among other cash-raising moves. At one point, it was projected to spend nearly 50% more than it stands to garner in revenue in this fiscal year, by one count. California has asked for federal help and warned it could run out of cash in March.

And California’s not the only state facing an almost unfathomable shortfall. Like California, Arizona and Illinois face budget gaps above 40% of projected general fund spending, according to Pew data.

Arizona put its state office buildings on sale this week in a bid to raise $700 million. The University of Illinois furloughed some workers this week after the state failed to come up with $436 million in expected funds. Budget officers in those two states describe their outlooks for fiscal 2010 as "dire," according to a National Conference of State Legislatures report.

Alaska, Nevada, New Jersey and New York face gaps of at least 30% of their planned general fund spending by the end of this fiscal year. A dozen more states face a fiscal 2010 budget gap of between 20% and 29%.

"California is playing out on the biggest stage, but there are states around the nation facing problems of equal or greater magnitude," said Corina Eckl, who runs the fiscal affairs program at the National Conference of State Legislatures in Denver. "We are seeing some frightening situations."

Big shortfalls scare legislators because states by law must balance their budgets every year. After revenue and spending rose steadily in the middle of this decade, bolstered by a housing bubble that boosted employment and fed a stream of property transfer fees, state funding went into freefall when the recession started at the end of 2007.

Given the depth of the recession, few states are expecting an uptick in employment or consumer spending that would translate into bigger tax collections anytime soon. Nine states are forecasting they won’t return to their peak revenue years of 2007 or 2008 until at least 2014.

Adding to the pressure, job losses spur demand for the services states devote the lion’s share of their budgets to: education and Medicaid, which provides healthcare for low-income people.

"The needs grow as states’ ability to meet those needs declines," said economist Andrew Reschovsky, a professor at the University of Wisconsin in Madison.

So far, the worst cuts have been avoided with the help of billions of dollars of federal stimulus money — including $135 billion for education and Medicaid.

But the flow of those funds will start to slow down in the second half of 2010 and will stop altogether at year-end, unless Congress appropriates more money for state assistance.

States have used $53.6 billion in Medicaid funding through Jan. 8, according to government data. If Congress doesn’t extend the Medicaid funding beyond the end of the year, "states are looking at a stimulus cliff," said Robert B. Ward, deputy director of the Rockefeller Institute of Government at the State University of New York at Albany.

The only way to make up those shortfalls is through more new taxes, cutbacks and borrowings.

Local and state governments have had little problem borrowing in the bond market, where analysts expect issuance of $400 billion or more this year. California has had to pay higher-than-average interest rates to sell its debt, but there seems to be little fear of a default, given the state’s giant economy and its relatively small $64 billion worth of general obligation bonds outstanding.

But borrowing is no help in fixing so-called structural deficits, in which spending exceeds revenue over a prolonged stretch. And so far there has been little sign legislators are willing to make the obligatory tough choices, particularly issuing more or higher taxes.

Many of the so-called fixes for current state deficits are mere Band-Aids that push the problem forward rather than address it, observers said.

"It’s surprising that political leaders don’t seem to be taking seriously the magnitude of the problems," said Reschovsky. "You would hope it wouldn’t come to this, but it might take schools closing and programs being eliminated to create a sense of urgency." 

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The Greater Capital Association of Realtors installed new board officers to lead the organization in Albany, N.Y.

The group also recognized five Realtors with 40 years of service during a Jan. 14 meeting at the Mohawk Golf Club in Niskayuna.

GCAR officers for 2010 are: President Laurene Curtin of Albany Realty Group in Colonie; President-elect Paul Semanek of Realty USA in Clifton Park; Secretary/Treasurer Nina Amdaon of Weichert Realtors Northeast Group in Loudonville.

Five Realtors were acknowledged for their four decades working in the real estate industry:

D guaranteed high risk personal loans. Wallace Bryce of Bryce Real Estate in Troy; Joyce Carlow of Weichert Realtors Northeast Group in Loudonville; Jeffrey Christiana of Prudential Manor Homes in Colonie; Robert King of Prudential Manor Homes in Rensselaer; and C. Douglas Volean of Prudential Manor Homes in Clifton Park.

GCAR has 3,100 members, including real estate agents and brokers working in 11 local counties.

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After four years of relative stability, Savvis Inc. is again looking for a new chief executive.

Phil Koen, who took the helm of the Town and Country-based company during a turbulent time, resigned abruptly Friday.

Koen will be replaced temporarily by Savvis Chairman Jim Ousley while the company searches for a more permanent option. The search is expected to take three to six months.

On Monday, Ousley said Koen’s departure is simply part of the company’s evolution. Koen joined the cloud computing firm — it provides information technology services and data storage for other companies — after former CEO Robert McCormick’s ugly departure. He left in late 2005 amid controversy over a $241,000 bill at a New York topless club that had been charged to a company credit card.

During Koen’s tenure, the company remade itself through acquisitions and the construction of data centers.

"The new CEO will have different traits than Phil. But Phil’s were ideal for that time," Ousley said.

Where Koen excelled in operational and financial areas, the new leader will be expected to have strong business development and sales and marketing skills, he said.

There’s certainly a challenge awaiting the company’s next chief executive.

After several years of significant losses following the dot-com bust, the firm finally turned a profit in 2007, only to slip again when the economy failed. Still, Ousley said Savvis is confident it is positioned to take advantage of an improving economic environment.

As to the suddenness of Koen’s departure, Ousley said it followed lengthy discussions about the company’s future and whether Koen wanted to commit another three to four years. Once the decision was made, there was no reason to put it off, with a considerable amount of strategic planning about be done, Ousley said.

"It came quicker just because it was the end of the year," he said.

In a company release, Koen cited the strength of the company’s management team and said "this is an excellent time for me to move on to a new opportunity and to watch Savvis continue to grow and excel."

Ousley also said the company has no plans to leave the St. Louis area.

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O’FALLON, ILL. — Balke Brown Associates of St. Louis plans to start work this spring on a 232-unit, high-end apartment development near the intersection of Green Mount Road and Frank Scott Parkway East.

The CEO, Steve Brown, said he thinks Parkway Lakeside Apartment Houses will be the premier upscale apartment complex in the St. Louis area.

Brown said the $27 million project makes sense because of its location. He said there is a strong market for luxury apartments in the area around Scott Air Force Base, which employs about 15,000 people and is largely unaffected by the current recession.

"(Many) people don’t understand that Scott Air Force Base is the Number 3 employer in the St. Louis area," Brown said. "Scott is growing and adding people."

The apartments will be built on a 20-acre site on the north side of Frank Scott Parkway, about 2,000 feet west of Green Mount Road. It will be adjacent to Green Mount Lakes Apartments, built by Balke Brown Associates five years ago and later sold. The two projects are at the edge of a booming restaurant and retail district and about a minute’s drive from Interstate 64. The company owns five acres of adjacent land planned for commercial development.

The building contractor will be Holland Construction Services of Swansea. Riverstone Residential of Dallas will manage the property for Balke Brown.

Humphreys & Partners of Dallas designed it, using the "big house" concept pioneered by that firm.

The 20 two-story apartment structures will have 10 to 14 units and be designed to look like large houses. The buildings will have only single front entrances with no breezeways or exposed stairways. Many units will have enclosed parking. Other amenities will include fireplaces, patios, balconies, a clubhouse, a swimming pool, a putting green, a walking trail and a recreational lake.

Prices will range from $950 monthly for a one-bedroom apartment to $1,650 for a two-bedroom unit with two-car garage no teletrack payday loans.

Some aldermen questioned the company’s proposal to make some parking spaces a foot shorter than the city’s 19-foot requirement, but the City Council ultimately agreed to variances that will allow 11 fewer parking spaces than the 476 that otherwise would be required by city code.

Brown said the council agreed that 60 percent of those could be 18 feet rather than 19 feet deep and said the variances will allow a design that will feature 45 percent open or green space.

"We made the argument that green is better than black," he said. "I think the project would have been less eco-friendly" if built to the letter of the code.

Ted Shekell, O’Fallon’s planning and zoning director, said city officials welcome the project.

"Balke Brown has been a great part of our town so far," he said. In addition to the earlier apartment development, the company also built an office building on the other side of I-64.

Shekell said he thinks the new development will be "a good fit for O’Fallon and this area. In a tough economic environment, we’re happy to have them interested in our community. I think it’s the kind of project you need for people who aren’t looking to buy (single-family houses) right now."

Shekell said development has slowed in O’Fallon, but the city of 30,000 still had 110 new houses started in 2009. That’s down from a 15-year average of 240, but house building is a near standstill in many area communities and around the country.

"Scott is a leveling influence on the economy of this area," Shekell said. There has been a downturn but investment has not stopped."

Brown said the area "feels like a young Chesterfield" to him.

"There is no recession there," he said.

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Federal subsidies for COBRA insurance coverage for involuntary terminated workers have been extended to 15 months – a move hailed by North Carolina’s insurance commissioner.

The subsidy, part of the federal stimulus plan, pays for 65 percent of the COBRA and mini-COBRA premiums for workers laid off from their jobs between Sept. 1, 2008 and Feb. 28, 2010. Previously, the subsidy ran out after nine months, after which the unemployed would have to pay the full COBRA premium.

“The COBRA subsidy extension is great news for North Carolinians who have been laid off and couldn’t continue their health insurance because of the often impossibly expensive premiums,” said state Insurance Commissioner Wayne Goodwin. “Many citizens in our state were approaching the subsidy’s original cutoff date and just didn’t know how they could pay for the full coverage premiums – or worse, they were forced to cancel their coverage once the subsidy ran out. I’m so pleased that these folks will have the opportunity to maintain their coverage.”

The extension applies to those who are currently receiving the subsidies and to those who have already exhausted their initial nine months of subsidies business card templates. Unemployed workers who are eligible for the subsidies will be notified by their former employers’ insurance provider.

Workers who dropped COBRA after the subsidies ran out because they could not afford the full premiums re-enroll and receive the extended subsidy. Workers who have been paying the full premium since the subsidies ran out should contact their plan administrator or sponsor about receiving future credits or reimbursements for their past payments.

COBRA allows many workers and their families to continue receiving health insurnace coverage that had been provided through their former employer. However, the worker is responsible for paying up to 102 percent of the total cost of the insurance, much of which may have been paid for by the employer.

Mini-COBRA is provided for workers of companies with fewer than 20 employees.

Individuals with questions about COBRA benefits should contact the N.C. Department of Insurance at (800) 546-5664 or go online to www.dol.gov/cobra.

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NEW YORK–AT&T Inc. said Thursday it would no longer sponsor Tiger Woods, joining Accenture in dropping support for the world’s top golfer, who’s taking a break from the sport to focus on his marriage after his admitted infidelity.

The phone company hasn’t used Woods’ image extensively in advertising, but its logo appeared on his golf bag. That deal had been billed as a "multiyear" agreement when it was signed early in 2009, after Buick ended its endorsement one year early because of its financial woes.

Woods has also been the host of the AT&T National PGA Tour event since it started in 2007. Tour spokesman Ty Votaw said that since Woods is on indefinite leave from professional golf, he will not serve as host for the 2010 event. However, his Tiger Woods Foundation will continue to be the beneficiary of the AT&T National, under a contract that runs through 2014, Votaw said.

AT&T said it would continue to sponsor the event.

Woods won the 2009 AT&T National in July at the Congressional Country Club in Bethesda, Md.

The AT&T National tournament is moving to Aronomick Country Club in eastern Pennsylvania for the next two years as Congressional prepares to play host to the 2011 U.S. Open.

AT&T has also been the presenting sponsor of the annual Tiger Jam concert event in Las Vegas.

AT&T, which is based in Dallas, did not comment on its reasons for dropping Woods, or how much the relationship was worth.

Woods’ agent, Mark Steinberg, had no comment on AT&T’s decision.

Woods’ image has taken a beating since a late November car accident at the golfer’s Florida home was followed by an admission of extramarital "transgressions."

Consulting firm Accenture dropped the athlete two weeks ago, saying he was "no longer the right representative" of the company’s values.

Gillette, a unit of the Procter & Gamble Co., also has said it won’t air ads for its razors that include Woods or include him in public appearances.

Swiss watch maker Tag Heuer, a unit of luxury goods empire LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton, also said that it would "downscale” its use of golfer Tiger Woods’ image in its advertising campaigns for the foreseeable future.

Electronic Arts Inc., which puts out the "Tiger Woods PGA Tour" series of golf video games, has not said what its plans are for the franchise.

Nike Inc. and PepsiCo Inc.’s Gatorade are other big sponsors that haven’t severed their ties.

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