Finance and Economic

WARRENTON • A billboard along Interstate 70 encourages drivers to stop in Warrenton and stay awhile.

But with just a handful of shops left at the Warrenton Outlet Center, there are fewer reasons for St. Louisans to make the trek to this city, about 60 miles west of downtown.

The Gap Factory Outlet and Dress Barn have jumped ship, finding apparently sunnier pastures last year at a strip center in Wentzville. The Levi’s Outlet Store, G.H. Bass & Company, and the Famous Footwear Outlet shuttered their locations last month.

And the Nike Factory Store, one of the last major retailers left, is closing in April and moving to the Meadows at Lake Saint Louis.

Elsewhere around the country, many outlet malls continue to thrive, and developers are rushing to build more of them. But Warrenton’s outlet center, operating under an increasingly outdated model, never managed to reach its full potential.

Now the beleaguered center will suffer an ignoble fate shared by other retail properties on the decline: the auction block.

The 200,000-square-foot outlet center will be put up for sale in a three-day online auction starting Monday morning. The minimum starting bid is $375,000.

The listing at auction.com notes that the center was 35 percent occupied in November. But that was before some of the recent departures.

The center opened in 1993 during a national boom in outlet mall construction. It once boasted many notable stores such as Mikasa, Nine West and Jones New York — some names of which are still barely visible above vacant storefronts. At one time, it had upward of 45 stores. Now, only about 10 stores remain.

“Even a few years ago, it was still a vibrant center,” said Michelle Schlenther, Warrenton’s director of economic development. “People would come out and make a day trip out of it. The dad would go play a round of golf while the wife shopped.”

So what happened?

“It’s an older center,” said Linda Humphers, who tracks the outlet mall industry for the International Council of Shopping Centers as editor of Value Retail News. “It’s only 200,000 square feet, and it’s probably a little too far out of town.”

Older outlet malls like Warrenton were built about 40 to 50 miles outside cities because retailers objected to having discounted merchandise so close to their regular-price stores.

But that model has begun to change with newer outlet malls creeping closer and closer in. For example, two proposed outlet mall developments are duking it out to come to Chesterfield within a stone’s throw of Chesterfield Mall.

NOT A DESTINATION

Steve Etcher, executive director of the Boonslick Regional Planning Commission, said the Warrenton outlets never grew to be large enough to be a true shopping destination. A third phase for the center, which would have taken it to more than 100 stores, never materialized.

“You had drive-by shopping but not enough to sustain it,” he said. “It’s not a bad location — you’re right on 70, but it’s not necessarily destination. To me, Lake of the Ozarks is destination. But this ended up being more of an along-the-way thing.”

It didn’t help, he said, that ownership of the center changed hands several times. And then when St. Louis Mills opened in 2003, offering a mix of outlet and regular price stores, that took some wind out of Warrenton, too.

Schlenther also traced some of the decline to several years ago when a number of stores went bankrupt or underwent massive restructuring such as KB Toys, Liz Claiborne and Big Dog Sportswear.

“So a lot of what closed there closed not only in Missouri, but across the nation,” she said quick payday loan. “And it just happened that we had a lot of those in one facility.”

Things got worse when the property fell into receivership a couple years ago, Schlenther said. At that time, the owner was Ariel Preferred Retail Group, which had a portfolio of about seven outlet malls.

“Stores just don’t want to come in and put an investment in because they don’t know when it’s bought what the new owners are going to do,” she said.

Texas-based Woodmont Co. is the receiver that’s managing the property. An on-site outlet manager referred questions to Fred Meno, a Woodmont executive. Meno did not return requests for comment.

Despite the troubles at Warrenton, Humphers said the prospects for an outlet mall in Chesterfield are rosier because the developers behind both projects are large, reputable mall developers.

In November, Simon Property Group, the owner of St. Louis Mills, announced it was joining forces with Woodmont and EWB Development on that proposed outlet project to be called St. Louis Premium Outlets. The project previously went by the name Spirit of St. Louis Outlets.

The other proposed outlet center — Chesterfield Outlets — is being spearheaded by Taubman Centers. The city of Chesterfield has approved its zoning request. And its plans for a 472,000-square-foot upscale outlet center will go before the city’s architectural review board next week.

Aimee Nassif, the city’s planning and development director, said she’s expecting to receive the section plans from the other project any day.

“They are literally kind of racing to the finish line,” she said. “It will be very interesting.”

OTHER USES

But Donna Boehringer hasn’t given up on the Warrenton outlets yet. She has operated her Corner Quilt Fabrics store in the center for about seven years after moving there from another location in town.

The move was good for business. A billboard she has along the interstate also has helped. She estimated about 60 percent of her customers are from out of town.

“Quilters seem to have this sixth sense of quilt shops,” she said. “If there’s one around, they will stop by.”

Boehringer did have her worst year in sales last year, but she attributed that more to the economy than to less traffic at the center. She’s in the process of renegotiating her lease.

“My plans are to stay right here,” she said. “I’m trying to be optimistic because I’d like to see something else come in. But we’ll see.”

Jan Olearnick, executive director of the Warrenton Area Chamber of Commerce, thinks the property holds promise for a mixed-use project. An education center, a health facility and a technology incubator are some of the ideas that have been thrown around.

“It would take a forward-thinking person to try and revive it, but we’re ready,” she said. “Warrenton is definitely a good location for any industry because of our proximity to I-70 and to the railroad — and even to the river.”

On top of that, the city recently got federal approval to build an interchange just west of the outlet center, making for easier access to the site. But the project’s funding source has not yet been determined.

In the meantime, other enterprises have been popping up in the region — though they are not necessarily retail.

A billboard next to the entrance to the outlet center advertises one of them a bit farther west: zip line tours.

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Total U.S. money market mutual fund assets fell $14.68 billion to $2.679 trillion for the week ended Wednesday, Investment Company Institute said.

Assets of the nation’s retail money market mutual funds fell $5.73 billion to $929.14 billion, the Washington-based mutual fund trade group said. Assets of taxable money market funds in the retail category fell $3.89 billion to $733.47 billion. Tax-exempt retail fund assets fell $1.84 billion to $195.67 billion.

Meanwhile, assets of institutional money market funds fell $8.95 billion to $1.750 trillion. Among institutional funds, taxable money market fund assets fell $8.13 billion to $1.653 trillion; assets of tax-exempt funds fell $820 million to $96.20 billion.

The seven-day average yield on money market mutual funds was 0.02 percent in the week ended Tuesday, unchanged from the previous week, said Money Fund Report. The 30-day average yield was also unchanged at 0 guaranteed online personal loans.02 percent.

The seven-day compounded yield was flat at 0.02 percent, as was the 30-day compounded yield at 0.02 percent, Money Fund Report said.

The average maturity of the portfolios held by money market mutual funds was unchanged from the previous week at 44 days.

Bankrate.com said its survey of 100 leading commercial banks, savings and loan associations and savings banks in the nation’s 10 largest markets showed the annual percentage yield available on money market accounts was unchanged at 0.13 percent from the previous week.

Bankrate.com said the annual percentage yield on six-month certificates of deposit was unchanged from the previous week at 0.22 percent.

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The stock market has had an impressive January. The staid companies that make up the Dow Jones industrial average have gained 4 percent in three weeks, and the broader market has done even better.

But the Nasdaq composite _ a collection of technology stocks whose dot-com heyday was more than a decade ago _ has left them both in the dust.

That’s no surprise when you consider tech stocks took a licking last year. Tech companies tend to carry more risk _ a problem for the Nasdaq during last year’s market gyrations. As investors regain confidence in the economy, riskier plays are doing well.

But experts say the Nasdaq’s gains reflect long-term currents that could lift tech stocks through 2012 and beyond. Many companies put off replacing worn-out technology during the recession. To compete and survive, they need to invest in tech.

There’s also a growing global market for technology as more nations try to reduce labor costs by automating everything from factories to cash registers.

And the biggest tech companies face less competition these days when they try to acquire smaller companies. Many of their mid-sized rivals for those deals were weeded out after the dot-com bust and the financial crisis.

In the market for mergers and acquisitions, established players like IBM and Oracle can be picky about buying only those companies that will increase their earnings _ and probably their stock prices.

In other words, it’s not all about Microsoft-style titans and trendy social media companies like LinkedIn and Zynga. The Nasdaq contains more than 3,000 companies, many of them relative startups compared with the companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index.

For the year _ just 13 trading days old _ the Nasdaq composite is up 7 percent, compared with 4.6 percent for the S&P 500 and 4.1 percent for the Dow.

“It looks like it’s going to be their year, or at least their month,” says Michael Vogelzang, chief investment officer at Boston Advisors LLC.

The Nasdaq sank 1.8 percent last year, while the Dow rose 5.5 percent and the S&P was flat. That left tech stocks relatively cheap, giving them more space to rise as the broader market rallied. Oracle is up 11.9 percent this year, Microsoft 14.5 percent.

Vogelzang and others say the tech rally has further to go.

“If you want to make your company more productive, you have to turn to the world of technology for that,” says Kim Caughey Forrest, senior analyst with Fort Pitt Capital Group.

She expects the S&P 500’s tech sector to outperform the broader market because of strong demand from U.S. companies, developing nations such as China and even cash-strapped European governments. As China’s banking system exploded to serve a growing middle class, banks there spent big on IBM technology, she noted.

“Nobody questions whether they need the latest and greatest technology anymore. They know they need to keep up their technology spending,” says Eric Gebaide, managing director of Innovation Advisors, a tech-focused investment bank and strategic advisory firm.

Gebaide and others mentioned many companies’ efforts to move their computing and data storage off-site _ trends known as “cloud computing” and “virtualization.” Long-distance computing is cheaper, but it requires technology.

But why are tech stocks rallying now? The cloud computing transition has been under way for years, and spending by companies has driven much of the U.S. recovery since the economy emerged from recession in June 2009.

It’s all about the investment cycle, says Jack Ablin, chief investment officer with Harris Private Bank. He says investors are finally willing to “flex their speculative muscles in a market that isn’t falling apart in the way they feared last year.”

Last year, some of the best-performing stocks were consumer staples and utilities _ lower-risk industries where demand is consistent even the economy is slow. This year, utilities in the S&P are down 3.7 percent, while tech companies are up 6 percent.

The move out of so-called defensive stocks, the ones you want to own in a slow economy, is a sign that investors are willing to embrace risk again.

“You’re getting this big market rotation,” Vogelzang says. “People made money last year in the boring, stable industries, and they’re saying, `Hey, I better get on this economy train while I can.’”

Tech companies learned hard lessons from the dot-com bust of the early 2000s and the 2008 financial crisis, says Gebaide of Innovation Advisors. They hold more cash than most types of companies and carry less debt. That leaves them less vulnerable to bankruptcy or a loss of investor confidence.

Given its twice-stung discipline, tech is positioned to drive the economy _ “perhaps the best it has been as a sector in the past 20 years,” Gebaide says.

The biggest threat to the industry, Gebaide says, is a slowdown in the early investment that helps startups grow into viable companies. Those early dollars used to offer massive returns to savvy investors when a good pick went public.

Today, the upside for venture capitalists is limited because far fewer companies are going public in big stock offerings. The bar is much higher after dot-com era debacles like Pets.com. Before underwriting a deal or buying chunks of stock, banks and investors want to see millions in annual revenue and established customer bases. It’s tough for younger tech companies to meet those standards.

Peter Falvey, managing director of Morgan Keegan Technology Group, says there’s plenty of capital, entrepreneurship and good ideas to keep companies’ bottom lines _ and stock prices _ rising.

Falvey’s group specializes in tech mergers and acquisitions _ the kinds of deals that allow IBM or Oracle to bring a small competitor’s product to a wider audience and add to their own earnings. Last year was the best for M&A in his group’s 11-year history, and this year’s deal pipeline already is stronger than last year’s was at this time, he says.

A company like IBM “has huge amounts of capital and a global customer base, plus complete hardware-software services,” Falvey says. “Once you put a small company into that machine, IBM can do really well with it.”

The industry’s earlier downturns also helped big companies by weeding out smaller players. The number of publicly traded tech companies has decreased by a third since 2000, Gebaide says. Now the big dogs can pick and choose more carefully, acquiring only businesses that are almost certain to increase their profits.

To be sure, high-tech companies are higher-risk investments, and they could lose value quickly if the market tanks because of a debt catastrophe in Europe or something unforeseen.

“People love tech until we get an economic shock, or negative economic statistics start to come out,” Vogelzang says. “Then all of a sudden, people will say, `Whoa, I need to go buy some utilities again.”

But investors should take tech’s success at this stage as a promising sign, says Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist with Schaeffer’s Investment Research. He says higher-risk bets like tech stocks tend to rise as the market enters a phase of long-term growth.

Housing, tech and small-company stocks all have risen faster than broad indexes since October, Detrick says. Those sectors are sensitive to improving economic data, he says.

“When you start to see tech taking charge, that’s definitely a potential step in the right direction for future gains, potentially for the whole year,” Detrick says. “Those are the sectors you want to see lead a bull market.”

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An email landed in my inbox the other day from a startup called Timehop. In that email, there were pieces of my online life posted a year ago that day.

"Feeling inspired," I had tweeted January 6 , 2010. And then there was a picture I had posted of my best friend sitting at our favorite local restaurant in the East Village, the one that months later closed its doors after 20 years.

The next day, I received an email documenting a tweet I’d sent to another good friend leaving CNN. "We’re losing a good one," I tweeted him in farewell. Later that day, I posted a picture of my favorite building lit by afternoon sunlight in what has now become my old neighborhood.

Nostalgic? Just a bit.

That’s why Timehop is betting our social media history will become more important in a world where much of our lives are documented online.

Sign up and connect your Twitter, Foursquare, Facebook, and Instagram account and every morning a piece of your social media history will land in your inbox showing what you tweeted a year ago on that date, the pictures you posted, and the places you were.

"We’re producing enough content in digital form that we have a digital past," Timehop co-founder Jonathan Wegener said. "You’re following your own life story, which is pretty interesting." Wegener added that Timehop has tens of thousands of subscribers.

The interest in eventually looking back online is part of the reason Facebook overhauled its interface to create Timeline, a new version of the site that would also serve as a digital scrapbook and essentially, a story of our lives.

Until Facebook launched Timeline, it was tough to view your past actions on the service.

"We knew people wanted to dig back in," Meredith Chin, manager of product communications at Facebook said. "We wanted people to be able to see a return on investment they put in over the years and also look back and reflect things that were important to them."

Companies like Foursquare and Twitter don’t allow users an easy way of looking back at old tweets and check-ins, and Timehop hopes to position itself as the place to do that.

"Everyone’s focused on real time and there’s an incredibly powerful product to be built on the past," Wegener said. "That’s the product we’re building."

Code Year draws 200,000 aspiring programmers

Timehop was a spin off of 4SquareAnd7YearsAgo, which was originally built out of a Foursquare hackathon in February of last year. That service simply sent you reminders of your Foursquare check-ins in the past credit reports free.

Wegener was a part of the latest Techstars class, an influential incubator program in New York that matches entrepreneurs with mentors. He was working on another startup called FriendsList, which was meant to take on Craigslist.

Wegener said Timehop was always a side startup but people just latched on to it. So he stopped working on FriendsList and is now working on Timehop full time with two other coworkers. He wouldn’t comment on VC funding.

The service uses the public APIs from social networks like Twitter and Foursquare to collect that data and send it to users in a daily email.

"What’s the point?" you might ask. I thought the same, but in a world where our musings are tweeted and our favorite moments shared on our smartphones, it doesn’t hurt to have a little reminder of where we were a year ago.

Wegener says the gentle digital reminders from the past in a daily email are "emotionally powerful," citing users who are reliving their child’s birth and viewing pictures they posted a year earlier.

But what happens when we don’t want to be reminded of the past? What if the daily reminder mentions an ex-boyfriend or someone who has since died?

Wegener admitted that’s been a problem for Timehop. "We’ve had a surprising number of people unsubscribing due to people not wanting to relive a tough patch of history," he said.

The crew is currently working on a filter that would allow users more control over their reminders and a snooze feature that would turn off the service temporarily.

Wegener, who has spent nearly a year on the project, says the tweets we send, the pictures we post, and the other bits of media we’ve started creating on a daily basis will ultimately gain value.

"The content you create gains value with time. So whether it’s a photograph or tweet, it becomes more emotional with time — it ages like wine," he said.

Of course, the philosophy must be backed by a business plan and it’s not clear whether Timehop will be able to pull that off. Timehop eventually hopes to make money from advertising. Wegener said there is also potential for virtual gifts connected with a service that celebrates the past.

Only time will tell if our digital past will be a success in the future. We’ll sign up for Timehop and check back in a year. 

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Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said the drop in the unemployment rate to 8.5 percent may be partially reversed in coming months.

U.S. employment likely grew solidly last month, but the jobless rate probably rose from a 2-1/2 year low as improving conditions lured some Americans who had given up looking for work back into the labor market.

The government’s closely watched employment report due on Friday should cement views that economic growth accelerated in the fourth quarter after a tepid performance in the first nine months of 2011.

However, the pace of job creation remains too slow to signal a robust recovery is finally under way. Nonfarm payrolls rose 150,000 last month, according to a Reuters survey, after rising 120,000 in November.

Unusually mild weather during the month may have given employment a boost.

While the unemployment rate is expected to edge up to 8.7 percent from 8.6 percent, the tone of the report will likely be strengthened by upward revisions to the payrolls count for October and November, in keeping with a recent trend.

“Businesses are beginning to feel a little bit better about the future and are hiring, but we cannot get too excited because 150,000 is the minimum we need to keep the job market stable,”

said Sung Won Sohn, an economics professor at California State University Channel Islands in Camarillo, California.

The economy would need even faster job growth over a sustained period to make a noticeable dent in the pool of 24.4 million Americans who remain either out of work or underemployed 2-1/2 years after the end of the 2007-09 recession.

Job growth has averaged 131,000 over the past 11 months and even if payrolls rise as expected in December, employment will still be 6.1 million below its December 2007 level.

With the labor market still far from healthy, the debt crisis in Europe unresolved and tensions over Iran threatening to drive up oil prices, the U.S. economy faces stiff headwinds.

Economists predict the recovery will lose a step early this year after expanding in the fourth quarter at what is expected to be the fastest pace in 1-1/2 years.

This should keep alive the possibility of the Federal Reserve embarking on a third round of asset purchases, or quantitative easing, to spur stronger growth.

“We could see QE3 by the middle of the year,” said Harm Bandholz, chief U.S. economist at UniCredit Research in New York.

The employment report will offer little comfort to the Obama administration and could provide Republicans with more ammunition to attack the government’s handling of the economy.

President Barack Obama’s chances of a second term in office could depend on the health of the labor market.

LABOR MARKET TONE IMPROVING

Although the pace of job creation remains mediocre, there is no denying that the market is healing.

Small business hiring is improving and layoffs have subsided, with first-time applications for state unemployment benefits hovering near 3-1/2 year lows.

Over the past several months, the government has consistently revised up earlier payroll counts based on its survey of employers high risk personal loans. In addition, the household survey, from which the unemployment rate is derived, has shown an even more vigorous pace of hiring for each of the last four months.

Economists say the Bureau of Labor Statistics may not be picking up jobs created by small companies and new businesses.

“The payrolls survey has a hard time picking up smaller employers and births of new start-ups, and that’s where we expect to see a lot of job creation,” said Stephen Bronars, senior economist at Welch Consulting in Washington.

“It’s always going to be harder for the BLS to pick up those because they are measuring employment at companies that are included in their survey and those tend to be the bigger, well established companies.”

In Friday’s report, the government will revise the household series going back five years. Analysts will watch this survey closely to see if the recent improvements will hold.

A broad measure of unemployment that includes people who want to work but have stopped looking and those working only part time but who want more work hit a 2-1/2-year low in November.

GOVERNMENT A DRAG

All the anticipated job gains in December will come from the private sector, where payrolls are seen rising 165,000. Government employment is expect to shrink 15,000, weighed down by budget cuts at state and local governments.

However, the worst of the belt tightening is over and some states have reporting increases in revenue.

In November, a measure of the share of industries that showed job gains during the month fell sharply and economists will be watching to see if it recovers.

Job gains in December are expected to come from construction, where unseasonably mild weather has boosted groundbreaking for new homes. Transportation and warehousing payrolls could also benefit from the mild temperatures.

Manufacturing could post a third consecutive month of job gains, but a moderation in retail employment is expected after recording the biggest increase in seven months in November as retailers geared up for a busy holiday shopping season.

Healthcare and social assistance hiring is expected to pick up after adding the smallest number of jobs in five months in November. Temporary hiring — seen as a harbinger of future hiring — is expected to show more gains.

Even though employment probably picked up last month, a modest gain in hourly earnings is likely, indicating that most of the jobs being created are low paying. The high unemployment rate also means wages cannot grow much.

This is a potentially troubling sign for consumer spending, which has been largely supported by a reduction in savings.

The average work week is seen steady at 34.3 hours.

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After four leaderless months, Yahoo named Scott Thompson as its new CEO on Wednesday — choosing an outsider to take over the helm despite shareholders’ calls to sell the company.

Thompson was previously the president of PayPal, an eBay (, Fortune 500) subsidiary. His appointment, which becomes official January 9, follows the ouster of former CEO Carol Bartz — who was unceremoniously fired by the company’s board via phone in September.

Shares of Yahoo (, Fortune 500) closed 3.1% lower Wednesday.

In a prepared statement, Thompson called Yahoo "an industry icon" with a "rich history." Although that’s true, Yahoo has struggled mightily in recent years. The company gave up on search two years ago, a market that it once led. It is also losing ground with its other cash cow, display advertising, to new entrants to the market such as Google (, Fortune 500) and Facebook.

On a conference call following the announcement, journalists and analysts hammered Thompson on those points. He said he needs time on the job to develop strong answers.

"It’s too early for me to have any informed opinion as to the display space, what’s going on there and what’s happening next," Thompson said on the call. "I have a lot to learn, and it’s still very early days … but down in that data we’re going to find ways to innovate and compete."

Roy Bostock, chairman of Yahoo’s board of directors, was also on the call and jumped in to answer many of the hardball questions.

"What we’re doing at Yahoo, you can call it a turnaround, but it’s really building on strong assets," Bostock said.

Will Yahoo sell itself? Despite Bostock’s insistence Yahoo can stand alone, the company’s weakness has attracted buyout interest from a long list of both private equity firms and tech titans. Reports in late October said Google was preparing a bid, in addition to Microsoft (, Fortune 500), which offered to buy Yahoo for more than $47 billion in 2008 and was turned down no checking account payday advance. Reports last month said Chinese Internet company Alibaba, of which Yahoo owns a stake, is preparing a takeover bid.

Yahoo co-founder Jerry Yang and other board members have privately told four major private equity firms that the board would not support a takeover offer for the entire company, Fortune reported on Wednesday.

Several groups of activist shareholders had pushed Yahoo’s board to sell the company, but bringing in an outside CEO makes that possibility more remote.

An analyst on the conference call asked Thompson whether he "see[s] Yahoo as public or private" in the future.

Thompson got out half a word before Bostock jumped in: "We are a public company, with roughly a $20 billion market cap. We don’t see that changing right now."

But earlier in the call, Bostock said Yahoo is "considering a wide range of business investments" and other options. He stressed several times during the call that "the primary focus will be on core business."

That leaves Yahoo room to shed more of its vast product portfolio. It began winnowing in late 2010, killing off struggling services like its Buzz community news site and aging AltaVista search engine. Yahoo also thinned its blogs and sold off bookmarking service Delicious.

Thompson said his aim is "to return this business to one of the great iconic brands. I have a core belief that what happens in the next five years, and the next ten, is almost impossible to imagine."

He closed the call by saying, "I’m genuinely excited to be here. I would not be here if I didn’t think the future of this brand could be spectacular."

Yahoo chief financial officer Tim Morse had been serving as interim CEO, and he will return to his former position once Thompson takes the helm. Morse will also join the company’s board. 

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At the center of the down payment debate in Washington are rules about what constitutes a “qualifying residential mortgage,” or QRM.

Under the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act, a QRM would constitute a gold standard for home loans, and mortgages that meet it would be exempt from rules requiring the bank that generates a loan to keep at least 5 percent of the loan’s value on its books

The Canadian housing market is due for a correction, but it will likely be a slow decline rather than a sharp drop, says a report from the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.