Finance and Economic

Iceland’s government will meet opposition lawmakers today, seeking consensus over a U.K. and Dutch proposal to amend the terms of a loan covering foreign depositor claims that led to a souring of international relations and stalled payments of the island’s bailout.

“I can’t comment on the specifics of the offer we received, although I can say that it’s worth consideration,” said Foreign Minister Ossur Skarphedinsson in a phone interview yesterday. Prime Minister Johanna Sigurdardottir told broadcaster RUV on Feb. 20 the new offer significantly reduced the burden on Iceland.

One option is a floating interest rate instead of the 5.5 percent rate set when the $5.3 billion loan agreement was made in October and an interest-rate holiday may also be considered, according to government officials on Feb 19. They declined to be identified because the proposals have not been made public.

The new rate will make it cheaper for Iceland to repay a loan granted to cover deposits at failed Landsbanki Islands hf’s Icesave Internet bank. Iceland has been trying to restore relations with the British and the Dutch after President Olafur R. Grimsson blocked a bill intended to compensate the two countries. That rejection means the legislation will be put to a March 6 referendum, which most polls show Icelanders will reject.

It’s unlikely the government will try to introduce any new proposal to the parliament, unless it enjoys a wide political consensus, Skarphedinsson said yesterday.

“A proposal that has the backing of a strong majority in parliament is unlikely to be opposed by Iceland’s president,” he said.

‘Hang On’

After last night’s meeting, Sigurdardottir said she would “hang on to the hope of reaching an agreement, until something else is revealed.”

Standard & Poor’s has said it may follow Fitch Ratings decision, made when the bill was suspended, to cut Iceland’s credit grade to junk. Sigurdardottir previously signaled her government wanted to renegotiate the bill before it’s put to a vote.

The suspension of the Icesave bill, named after the high- yielding Internet accounts offered by failed Landsbanki, has put in question the continuation of Iceland’s $4.6 billion International Monetary Fund-led loan.

While the IMF has said continued disbursement of its $2.1 billion portion of the emergency loan isn’t linked to Icesave, the fund can’t provide installments without financing from contributing nations. Nordic countries that are providing $2.5 billion have indicated they want Icesave resolved before they resume payment.

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Uncertainly about the future prospects for jobs in America got even foggier Wednesday as two reports on job cuts revealed conflicting results.

A report from Automatic Data Processing, a firm that collects monthly payroll data, suggested that the pace of job cuts may be slowing. But a separate report from Challenger, which predicts job cuts based on forward-looking announcements from companies, said planned cuts hit a 5-month high in January.

ADP (ADP, Fortune 500) said private-sector employers cut 22,000 jobs in January, marking the smallest decline since February of 2008. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast a loss of 30,000 jobs in January.

The number of cuts in December was revised down to 61,000 from the previously reported 84,000.

"We aren’t doing a whole lot of hiring yet, but I think you can safely say the firing is starting to stop," said John Canally, an economist at LPL Financial. "And this shows that we’re close to adding more jobs."

The service sector reported an increase of 38,000 jobs in January, marking the second consecutive month of job growth for that sector following a 21-month decline.

The figure was offset by a loss of 60,000 in the goods-producing sector and a drop of 25,000 manufacturing jobs, which marked its lowest level since January, 2008.

In a separate report Wednesday, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc, said planned job cuts had accelerated in January.

"[The Challenger report] uses a different metric," said Canally. "The job cut announcements aren’t actual layoffs, they are plans in place to cut jobs in the future, but not all of those end up being lost — some are unfilled positions and some are added back later."

Challenger said employers announced 71,482 layoffs in January, reversing what had been a steady decline in layoff announcements.

January’s figure is up 59% from December 2009, when layoffs fell to a 24-month low of 45,094. But it was a sharp drop from the 241,749 cuts announced a year ago.

"It is not uncommon to see a surge in job-cut announcements to begin the year," said Challenger CEO John Challenger. "Companies are making adjustments based on the previous year’s results and the outlook for the year ahead.

The retail and telecom sectors were the hardest hit in January, with 16,737 and 14,010 job cuts, respectively. Last month Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500) said it would shed 11,200 positions at its Sam’s Clubs Warehouse outlets, and Verizon Communications (VZ, Fortune 500), announced 13,000 layoffs.

"The beginning of the year is particularly rough on retail workers, as [their] employers enter one of the slower sales periods of the year," Challenger said.

Despite the monthly decline, Canally said the report signals future job growth.

"This is still pretty much a decade-low for job cut announcements, which shows that the economy is probably about to turn around," said Canally. "The outlook is getting clearer, so I wouldn’t be too concerned about this bump in January."

Wednesday’s reports precede the closely watched monthly jobs report from the Labor Department due Friday. That’s expected to show employment levels essentially unchanged in January, according to a consensus of economists polled by Briefing.com, compared to a loss of 85,000 jobs in December.

The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 10%. 

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Federal subsidies for COBRA insurance coverage for involuntary terminated workers have been extended to 15 months – a move hailed by North Carolina’s insurance commissioner.

The subsidy, part of the federal stimulus plan, pays for 65 percent of the COBRA and mini-COBRA premiums for workers laid off from their jobs between Sept. 1, 2008 and Feb. 28, 2010. Previously, the subsidy ran out after nine months, after which the unemployed would have to pay the full COBRA premium.

“The COBRA subsidy extension is great news for North Carolinians who have been laid off and couldn’t continue their health insurance because of the often impossibly expensive premiums,” said state Insurance Commissioner Wayne Goodwin. “Many citizens in our state were approaching the subsidy’s original cutoff date and just didn’t know how they could pay for the full coverage premiums – or worse, they were forced to cancel their coverage once the subsidy ran out. I’m so pleased that these folks will have the opportunity to maintain their coverage.”

The extension applies to those who are currently receiving the subsidies and to those who have already exhausted their initial nine months of subsidies business card templates. Unemployed workers who are eligible for the subsidies will be notified by their former employers’ insurance provider.

Workers who dropped COBRA after the subsidies ran out because they could not afford the full premiums re-enroll and receive the extended subsidy. Workers who have been paying the full premium since the subsidies ran out should contact their plan administrator or sponsor about receiving future credits or reimbursements for their past payments.

COBRA allows many workers and their families to continue receiving health insurnace coverage that had been provided through their former employer. However, the worker is responsible for paying up to 102 percent of the total cost of the insurance, much of which may have been paid for by the employer.

Mini-COBRA is provided for workers of companies with fewer than 20 employees.

Individuals with questions about COBRA benefits should contact the N.C. Department of Insurance at (800) 546-5664 or go online to www.dol.gov/cobra.

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The Toronto stock market closed slightly higher Friday as some investors speculated Thursday’s global sell-off in equities triggered by Dubai’s attempt to delay debt repayments was overdone.

The S&P/TSX composite index advanced 27.61 points to 11,464.41 after tumbling 200 points Thursday in the wake of an announcement that Dubai World, a government investment company, had asked creditors to postpone its forthcoming payments on $60 billion (U.S.) in debt until May.

Thursday’s loss was responsible for a TSX loss of 114.92 points, or 1 per cent, for the week.

New York markets tumbled Friday, catching up with the losses racked up by other global markets after being closed Thursday for the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 154.48 points to 10,309.92 at the end of a shortened session. The blue-chip index was flat for the week, up a slight eight points.

The Nasdaq composite index lost 37.61 points to 2,138.44. The S&P 500 fell 23.36 points to 1,087.27.

The Dubai announcement Wednesday stoked fears of a potential default and contagion around the global financial system, particularly in emerging markets. But a day later, investors were taking a harder look at what the Dubai debt crisis means.

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said there wasn’t any reason for “significant concern” about spillover effects from Dubai’s attempt to delay debt repayments and “any effects would be quite mild on the Canadian financial system.”

Blair Falconer, portfolio manager at HSBC Securities Canada, observed that investors felt better Friday knowing that Canadian financials have limited or no exposure to the Dubai debt.

The Canadian dollar fell 0.09 of a cent to 94.21 cents after a flight to the greenback had sent the loonie down 1.35 cents on Thursday.

The financial sector led gainers, up 0.8 per cent. The industrials sector ran ahead 0.91 per cent.

Commodities were also weaker, but well off early lows, with the January crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange falling $1.91 to $76.05 a barrel. The energy sector was off 0.12 per cent.

The gold sector was off 1.83 per cent as bullion prices also gave up ground with the December gold contract on the Nymex down $12.80 to $1,174.20 an ounce.

The Canadian Press

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As the economy continues to wobble, Canadian retailers are offering deeper discounts and keeping their stores open longer in hopes of capturing whatever holiday shoppers might be in the market for this year.

Wal-Mart Canada says it’s dropping a "record number" of prices between now and Christmas to help Canadians stay on budget this holiday season.

Sears Canada is offering what it calls "Boxing Day" pricing on a wide range of items this weekend.

The price-cutting comes as a new survey suggests this will be the worst season for holiday shopping since 2005.

Just under six in 10 Canadians say they plan to spend the same amount as they did last year, about one-third plan to spend less and eight per cent plan to spend more, according to TNS Canadian Facts.

"We often hear talk of so-called cautious optimism. But these results suggest now is a time for cautious negativism. Clearly, the floor hasn’t collapsed but it might be time to start looking for cracks," TNS vice-president and research director Michael Antecol said in a statement.

The Toronto-based research firm’s Consumer Confidence Index now stands at 95.5 points. That’s down 2.5 points since last month and down 3.7 points since August cash advance in one hour.

The numbers have slipped in all categories, TNS also said. Consumers are less confident about the present and the future and also say they’re less likely to make a big purchase at this time.

Retailers are responding.

Wal-Mart Canada said it expects to cut prices on more than 18,000 items this month, 20 per cent more price cuts than the year earlier period.

"We know this has been a tough year for Canadians, so we have made every effort to drop our prices and help Canadians make their dollars go farther this holiday season," Walmart Canada president and chief executive officer David Cheesewright said in a statement.

"In every department in our stores, from electronics to toys to housewares to food, we offer everyday low prices as well as special holiday pricing."

Meanwhile, Sears Canada says this weekend’s Boxing Day prices will be available on everything from clothing to electronics.

The department store retailer said it’s also keeping selected stores open later to give customers more time to shop.

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Europe’s manufacturing and services industries expanded at the fastest pace in 22 months in October as evidence mounted that the global economy is pulling out of the recession.

A composite index of both industries in the euro-area economy rose to 53 from 51.1 in September, London-based Markit Economics said today. Economists forecast a gain to 51.6, according to the median of 13 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

European companies are stepping up output to meet reviving orders after governments around the world spent $2 trillion in stimulus measures to fight the worst recession in at least six decades. The International Monetary Fund said on Oct. 1 the global economy will expand at a faster pace than previously expected in 2010. Still, the euro’s ascent against the dollar may curb a European recovery.

“The second half of the year will be relatively strong,” said Juergen Michels, chief euro-area economist at Citigroup in London. “Looking ahead, there are a lot of reasons for momentum to weaken partly because of a stonger euro.”

The world economy will shrink 1.1 percent this year, less than the 1.4 percent projected in July, the Washington-based IMF forecast. In 2010, the economy may expand 3.1 percent instead of a previously projected 2.5 percent, the fund said. In the euro region, the economy probably returned to growth in the third quarter, the European Commission forecast last month.

Global Recovery

Adding to signs of global recovery, confidence in the world economy rose for a third straight month in October, a Bloomberg survey of users on six continents showed earlier this month. In the U.S., the world’s largest economy, industrial output increased more than expected in September and China’s manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in 17 months.

Wolfsburg, Germany-based Volkswagen AG, the biggest overseas carmaker in China, sold 150,000 cars last month, a monthly record, as sales for the first nine months surged 37 percent. Volkswagen is investing 4 billion euros ($6 billion) to expand capacity in China through 2011.

“China is the steam engine of the world economy,” Volkswagen sales chief Detlef Wittig said in a Sept. 25 interview in Frankfurt. “The lust for mobility there seems almost bottomless. We’re very well positioned there and will keep investing to secure our share of the market.”

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The number of home foreclosures in process and delinquent mortgages rose during the second quarter, while home retention actions also increased, U.S. bank regulators said on Wednesday.

Foreclosures jumped 16 percent to 2.9 percent of serviced mortgages, while home retention actions such as loan modifications rose 21.7 percent, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision said in a report.

“The mortgage data reported for the second quarter of 2009 continued to reflect negative trends influenced by weakness in economic conditions, including high unemployment and declining home prices in weak housing markets,” the report said.

The report covers mortgages serviced by most of the industry’s largest mortgage servicers, whose loans make up about 64 percent of all mortgages outstanding in the United States.

The regulators said there was a lull in newly initiated foreclosures during the second quarter as mortgage servicers worked to implement the federal “Making Home Affordable” program.

The $50 billion program, launched in March, is designed to stabilize the housing market by helping up to 9 million Americans reduce their monthly mortgage payments to more affordable levels.

The OCC and OTS said the emphasis on the program contributed to a dramatic shift in the composition of home retention actions toward lowering payments. Previously, the vast majority of loan modifications either did not change or increased monthly payments.

The weak economy continued to drive up the number of delinquent mortgages. The number of mortgages delinquent 30 to 60 days jumped 10.9 percent during the second quarter to 3.2 percent of all mortgages covered by the report.

The number of mortgages that were more than 90 days delinquent increased 11.5 percent, rising to 5.3 percent of serviced mortgages.

Separately, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday that U.S. mortgage applications fell last week despite the lowest loan rates in four months, another sign that housing will likely recover slowly from its three-year plunge.

(Reporting by Karey Wutkowski, editing by Gerald E. McCormick and John Wallace)

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U.S. bank regulators are expected to propose on Tuesday that banks prepay three years of regular assessments to replenish the dwindling deposit insurance fund, according to a source familiar with the matter.

Such an option would give the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp more liquidity to deal with the sharp increase in bank failures, while banks would not be required to report the expense of the fees until they would normally be due.

The source, speaking anonymously because the regulator discussions have been private, said the FDIC would likely propose for the banking industry to prepay $12 billion per year in assessments, for a total of $36 billion.

The board of the FDIC is meeting on Tuesday to propose alternatives to charging the banking industry hefty emergency fees to avoid having the balance of the insurance fund hit zero.

The industry has said such upfront fees could hurt banks just as their balance sheets are starting to recover from the recent financial crisis.

FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair has said the agency is considering alternatives to the upfront “emergency” fees, including prepayments of regular assessments, tapping the FDIC’s $500 billion line of credit with Treasury, and borrowing from healthier banks to rebuild the fund.

It is unclear what combination of options the FDIC board will propose to put out for public comment on Tuesday, as it seems regulators have narrowed the menu of options.

An FDIC spokesman declined to comment.

The source said the total amount of prepaid assessments could reach higher than $36 billion if the FDIC decides to ask the bank industry to also prepay special assessments.

The FDIC is exploring ways to replenish the insurance fund that safeguards bank deposits after a sharp increase of bank failures has been draining the fund.

So far this year 95 U.S. banks have failed, compared with 25 last year and only three in 2007.

Those failures have whittled the balance of the insurance fund down to $10.4 billion at the end of the second quarter from $45 billion a year earlier. The FDIC notes it has an additional $32 billion in reserves to handle failures over the next year.

(Reporting by Karey Wutkowski; editing by Carol Bishopric and Andre Grenon)

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Bank of America Corp CEO Ken Lewis has survived troubled acquisitions, massive credit losses and two government bailouts, but experts question whether he can survive a series of investigations.

Lewis and other senior bank executives face intense scrutiny from regulators, state attorneys general and the U.S. Congress over whether they failed to disclose key information about Merrill Lynch’s financial health and bonus plans before Bank of America bought the brokerage.

“It comes to a point that the company is so completely distracted by the legal fight it can’t focus on the business,” said Tony Plath, banking professor at UNC-Charlotte who follows the bank closely. “This is becoming a significant impediment to management’s job.”

A Bank of America spokesman said the board fully supports Lewis, but did not elaborate further.

At a Monday meeting, the bank’s directors were expected to discuss legal options if he is charged with civil fraud, The Wall Street Journal said.

In the latest in a series of investigations and lawsuits, a U.S. House of Representatives panel gave the bank until noon Monday to provide additional information about its purchase of Merrill Lynch. The panel said the bank cannot use attorney-client privilege to withhold details of the deal from Congress.

And New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo’s office is considering filing civil charges against Lewis,

Whatever Cuomo and other investigators decide, legal issues can drag on for years, and companies often cut ties with executives to minimize such distractions, according to corporate governance experts free insurance quotes.

“Whether a management change happens depends on the size of the distraction,” said Karen Brenner, a business professor at New York University specializing in ethics and corporate governance. “Legal issues can ebb and flow, but the company is dealing with a great deal of pressure now.”

Brenner said while it is early to assume the pending legal issues will quickly force wholesale management change, such changes are not unprecedented.

Some investors are already getting restless.

Michael Nix, co-chief investment officer for Greenwood, South Carolina-based Greenwood Capital Associates, said the firm is considering selling its 100,000 Bank of America shares because of short-term performance and long-term litigation worries.

“We’ll still be talking about these lawsuits three to five years from now,” Nix said. “A lot of people will get pulled into this thing.”

Bank of America shares were down 2 percent at $17.28 in Monday afternoon trading.

ABRUPT ENDS 

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The world’s top cellphone maker Nokia cut its forecast for second half profitability and 2009 market share at its key phone unit on Thursday, sending its shares sharply lower.

Nokia, which is facing tough competition from the likes of Apple, Samsung and RIM, scaled back its second-half underlying operating profit margin forecast for its key phone unit to the first-half level of 11.3 percent, from 13-19 percent previously.

Nokia also cut its forecast for 2009 market share at its phone business, seeing it now on a par with last year, compared with an earlier forecast for a rise.

Shares in Nokia fell more than 8 percent on the news to 10.18 euros, compared with a 2.8 percent lower DJ Stoxx technology index.

“(The reaction) is the impression that Nokia concedes that the competition in the market place is heating up in the second half … that is related both to the reduced margin outlook and the market share outlook,” said West LB analyst Thomas Langer health insurance quotes.

Nokia’s underlying earnings per share slumped to 0.15 euros from 0.37 euros, but beat the average forecast of 0.13 euros in a Reuters poll of 31 analysts.

The handset industry this year is facing its worst downturn ever, and market No 5 Sony Ericsson reported earlier on Thursday a deep loss for April-June.

“Amid the doom and gloom Nokia have delivered some excellent results … Nokia’s high-tier performance continues to be the biggest concern,” said CCS Insight analyst Geoff Blaber.

Nokia also said its telecom equipment arm, Nokia Siemens Networks, had won a 1.1 billion euro ($1.55 billion) order to operate the telecoms networks of Brazilian operator Oi over the next five years.

(Reporting by Tarmo Virki, editing by Elaine Hardcastle)

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