03/02/2010 (5:51 pm)
EU Crafts Greece Aid Plan as Rehn to Push Deficit Cut
European Union Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn will likely push Greece to do more to cut its budget deficit today as governments craft a possible rescue package for the cash-strapped nation.
Rehn will meet with Prime Minister George Papandreou as German lawmakers say euro-area officials are devising a plan to grant Greece about 25 billion euros ($34 billion) in aid should it need help financing its debt, possibly by using state-owned lenders such as the KfW Group to buy its bonds.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker signaled yesterday that Rehn will warn Greece it must do more to narrow the EU’s largest budget gap and can’t rely on taxpayers elsewhere to help until it acts. Adding to the political pressure, the fiscal strategy of Papandreou’s government may soon be tested by investors as it readies a sale of as much as 5 billion euros of 10-year notes.
“If the Greek government cannot raise the necessary funds in the commercial market, which continues to look unlikely, then bilateral loans will be forthcoming,” said Erik Nielsen, chief European economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in London.
The euro weakened for the first time in four days, falling to $1.3608 from $1.3631. It declined versus 13 of 16 most-active currencies.
Deficit Reduction
Rehn arrives after European officials pored over the government’s books to verify it’s doing enough to knock 4 percentage points off its budget deficit from last year’s 12.7 percent of gross domestic product. The country has until March 16 to satisfy fellow EU governments that its deficit reduction plan is on track and faces being pressed to increase consumer taxes and lower capital spending if it can’t show sufficient progress.
Juncker, who speaks for euro-area finance ministers, yesterday indicated more will be demanded. Greece needs to “take additional actions” to pare its shortfall and “must understand that the taxpayer in Germany, Belgium or Luxembourg isn’t prepared to correct the mistakes of Greek fiscal policy,” he told Eleftherotypia newspaper.
In an interview with ARD Television, Merkel denied money has been set aside to bail out Greece and said the country has to “do its homework.” Speaking after the euro recorded its third straight monthly loss against the dollar, its longest losing streak since November 2008, Merkel said the single currency is “certainly facing the most difficult phase.”
‘May Not Survive’
Billionaire investor George Soros said on CNN yesterday that the euro “may not survive” the Greek turmoil.
Investors last week continued to question Greece’s chances of cutting its budget deficit. Greek two-year yields rose by as much as 75 basis points on Feb. 25, the most since Jan. 20. The spread between 10-year German bunds and Greek securities of a similar maturity widened 12 basis points in the week to 330 basis points payday loans with no fax.
Still, the cost of insuring against default on Greek government debt fell for the first day in more than a week on Feb. 26 on speculation the nation will pledge tougher steps. Credit-default swaps on Greece dropped 35.6 basis points to 364.02, according to CMA Datavision. The contracts are down from Feb. 4’s record 428.25 basis points.
Papandreou told the Greek parliament on Feb. 26 that the nation will “meet the challenge with whatever cost and pain we will need to go through.” Government spokesman George Petalotis said in an interview the same day that more measures will be concerned if the EU deems it necessary.
EU Limit
Greece needs to raise 53 billion euros this year and redeem more than 20 billion euros of bonds by the end of May, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It vows to reduce its budget gap below the EU limit of 3 percent of GDP in 2012. The European Commission forecasts a debt equivalent to 124.9 percent of GDP this year.
KfW’s purchase of Greek bonds, backed by German government guarantees, would be an emergency measure as it would risk inviting investors to speculate against other euro region countries, the German lawmakers said on condition of anonymity because the information is confidential. France’s state-owned Caisse des Depots may also be involved, Greece’s Ta Nea newspaper reported Feb. 27. The Wall Street Journal said the plan may total 30 billion euros.
“Greece won’t be allowed to sink on the condition it respects its commitments to stabilize its budget,” French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde told Europe 1 radio yesterday. “We have a certain number of proposals in the euro zone, involving either private partners or public partners or both.”
Strikes
EU leaders ordered Greece on Feb. 11 to slash its budget deficit, while promising “determined” yet unspecified action to help if needed. Papandreou will on March 5 meet with Merkel, who yesterday suggested she is worried “emotions” may be spinning out of control.
Complicating the country’s efforts last week were another round of strikes and warnings from Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investors Service that they may soon cut Greece’s debt rating if the government flounders in reducing its deficit.
The government intends to sell 10-year notes by early March, according to a Jan. 26 statement from the Public Debt Management Agency. Fund managers who may take part in the issue say Greece must offer the biggest premium over benchmark German debt since 1998, paying a coupon of about 7 percent.
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