Finance and Economic

European Union Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn will likely push Greece to do more to cut its budget deficit today as governments craft a possible rescue package for the cash-strapped nation.

Rehn will meet with Prime Minister George Papandreou as German lawmakers say euro-area officials are devising a plan to grant Greece about 25 billion euros ($34 billion) in aid should it need help financing its debt, possibly by using state-owned lenders such as the KfW Group to buy its bonds.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker signaled yesterday that Rehn will warn Greece it must do more to narrow the EU’s largest budget gap and can’t rely on taxpayers elsewhere to help until it acts. Adding to the political pressure, the fiscal strategy of Papandreou’s government may soon be tested by investors as it readies a sale of as much as 5 billion euros of 10-year notes.

“If the Greek government cannot raise the necessary funds in the commercial market, which continues to look unlikely, then bilateral loans will be forthcoming,” said Erik Nielsen, chief European economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in London.

The euro weakened for the first time in four days, falling to $1.3608 from $1.3631. It declined versus 13 of 16 most-active currencies.

Deficit Reduction

Rehn arrives after European officials pored over the government’s books to verify it’s doing enough to knock 4 percentage points off its budget deficit from last year’s 12.7 percent of gross domestic product. The country has until March 16 to satisfy fellow EU governments that its deficit reduction plan is on track and faces being pressed to increase consumer taxes and lower capital spending if it can’t show sufficient progress.

Juncker, who speaks for euro-area finance ministers, yesterday indicated more will be demanded. Greece needs to “take additional actions” to pare its shortfall and “must understand that the taxpayer in Germany, Belgium or Luxembourg isn’t prepared to correct the mistakes of Greek fiscal policy,” he told Eleftherotypia newspaper.

In an interview with ARD Television, Merkel denied money has been set aside to bail out Greece and said the country has to “do its homework.” Speaking after the euro recorded its third straight monthly loss against the dollar, its longest losing streak since November 2008, Merkel said the single currency is “certainly facing the most difficult phase.”

‘May Not Survive’

Billionaire investor George Soros said on CNN yesterday that the euro “may not survive” the Greek turmoil.

Investors last week continued to question Greece’s chances of cutting its budget deficit. Greek two-year yields rose by as much as 75 basis points on Feb. 25, the most since Jan. 20. The spread between 10-year German bunds and Greek securities of a similar maturity widened 12 basis points in the week to 330 basis points payday loans with no fax.

Still, the cost of insuring against default on Greek government debt fell for the first day in more than a week on Feb. 26 on speculation the nation will pledge tougher steps. Credit-default swaps on Greece dropped 35.6 basis points to 364.02, according to CMA Datavision. The contracts are down from Feb. 4’s record 428.25 basis points.

Papandreou told the Greek parliament on Feb. 26 that the nation will “meet the challenge with whatever cost and pain we will need to go through.” Government spokesman George Petalotis said in an interview the same day that more measures will be concerned if the EU deems it necessary.

EU Limit

Greece needs to raise 53 billion euros this year and redeem more than 20 billion euros of bonds by the end of May, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It vows to reduce its budget gap below the EU limit of 3 percent of GDP in 2012. The European Commission forecasts a debt equivalent to 124.9 percent of GDP this year.

KfW’s purchase of Greek bonds, backed by German government guarantees, would be an emergency measure as it would risk inviting investors to speculate against other euro region countries, the German lawmakers said on condition of anonymity because the information is confidential. France’s state-owned Caisse des Depots may also be involved, Greece’s Ta Nea newspaper reported Feb. 27. The Wall Street Journal said the plan may total 30 billion euros.

“Greece won’t be allowed to sink on the condition it respects its commitments to stabilize its budget,” French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde told Europe 1 radio yesterday. “We have a certain number of proposals in the euro zone, involving either private partners or public partners or both.”

Strikes

EU leaders ordered Greece on Feb. 11 to slash its budget deficit, while promising “determined” yet unspecified action to help if needed. Papandreou will on March 5 meet with Merkel, who yesterday suggested she is worried “emotions” may be spinning out of control.

Complicating the country’s efforts last week were another round of strikes and warnings from Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investors Service that they may soon cut Greece’s debt rating if the government flounders in reducing its deficit.

The government intends to sell 10-year notes by early March, according to a Jan. 26 statement from the Public Debt Management Agency. Fund managers who may take part in the issue say Greece must offer the biggest premium over benchmark German debt since 1998, paying a coupon of about 7 percent.

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U.S. airline passenger revenue rose in January for the first time in more than a year as ticket prices increased, according to a trade group.

Revenue based on a sample of U.S. carriers was up 1.4% in January compared to the same month in 2009, following 14 consecutive months of declines, the Air Transport Association (ATA) said Tuesday.

The boost in sales came as the average ticket price to fly one mile jumped 0.6%, the first rise since November 2008, offsetting the 0 guaranteed approval cash loans.4% drop in passengers.

Revenue was also boosted by a 3.4% increase in passenger sales on trans-Atlantic routes in January, the ATA said.

In December, cargo traffic surged 17% year-over-year amid growth in international trade. That compares to an 11% decline for the full year of 2009. January 2010 cargo data were not yet available. 

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The number of Americans filing for initial unemployment insurance fell sharply last week, according to government data released Thursday.

There were 440,000 initial jobless claims filed in the week ended Feb. 6, down 43,000 from a revised 483,000 the previous week, the Labor Department said in a weekly report.

Economists were expecting initial claims to drop to 465,000, according to a consensus estimate from Briefing.com.

The 4-week moving average of initial claims, which smoothes out volatility in the measure, was 468,500. That’s down 1,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 469,500.

A Labor Department spokesman said the snow storm that crippled much of the East Coast last week did not impact the number of jobless claims filed.

"Next week’s numbers will definitely be impacted by weather," said Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities. "But a drop in claims fits with the more positive news we saw in the January jobs report."

The Labor Department said last week that the U.S. unemployment rate fell unexpectedly in January to 9.7% from 10%. Businesses shed 20,000 jobs for the month, far fewer than the 150,000 jobs that were lost in December.

"There are some clear positives in the labor market," Vitner said, pointing to the manufacturing sector, to which some workers have returned to work after being unemployed for a short period of time Business Card Holders.

Still, weekly initial claims totals remain "extremely high" and it is difficult to glean anything about the underlying trends in the job market from just one week of data, Vitner warned.

Continuing claims: The government said 4,538,000 people filed continuing claims in the week ended Jan. 30, the most recent data available. That’s down 79,000 from the preceding week’s revised 4,617,000 claims.

Economists were expecting continuing claims to have declined 2,000 to 4,600,000.

The 4-week moving average of continuing claims was 4,603,500, a drop of 17,750 from the preceding week’s revised average of 4,621,250.

However, many economists say the decline in continuing claims reflects a growing number of filers who have dropped off the jobless rolls into extended unemployment benefits.

Continuing claims reflect people filing each week after their initial claim until the end of their standard benefits, which usually last 26 weeks. The figures do not include those people who have moved to state or federal extensions, or people whose benefits have expired.

"The number of people receiving extended benefits is unprecedented," Vitner said.  

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The United States, which led the world into recession, may now see its fragile recovery stifled by events across the globe.

Dangerously high debt levels in Greece and some other European countries could trigger a wave of national defaults, undermining revival in Europe and probably in the United States as well.

And China’s recent steps to cool its economy also complicate President Barack Obama’s plan to attack high unemployment here by increasing U.S. exports. Financial markets have been whipsawed over concerns that debt problems in Greece — and perhaps also in high-debt Spain, Portugal, Ireland and even Italy — might infect stronger European neighbors.

Euro zone countries are key U.S. trading partners, and the United States can’t meet Obama’s goal of doubling exports in five years — or reap the benefits in new jobs — if debt default contagion spreads throughout Europe.

China is also deemed an important growing export market for U.S. goods. But Beijing’s recent steps to curtail bank lending and its economic saber-rattling at the United States have increased trade tension between the world’s largest economy and a country poised to soon surpass Japan for second place.

The Obama administration says it wants to move away from an economy fueled by heavy consumer spending and reliance on imports toward what economic adviser Lawrence Summers calls "an economy that’s based on investment, that’s based on exports, that’s based on saving payday loans." Unfortunately, all the other major economies also are counting on digging out, at least in part, through expanded exports. For every nation to be able to meet such a goal, of course, is a mathematical challenge.

The financial turmoil in Europe does have one potential silver lining for the U.S.: The uncertainty has raised the value of the dollar as measured against the currencies of 15 of the nation’s 16 biggest trading partners.

But there’s a downside to that, too. A stronger dollar makes made-in-America goods more expensive in overseas markets.

The U.S. trade deficit surged to a larger-than-expected $40.18 billion in December, the biggest imbalance in 12 months.

The Commerce Department said the December deficit was 10.4 percent higher than November. It was much larger than the $36 billion economists expected, with much of the increase coming from a big jump in oil imports.

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Imagine, in an alternate universe, Ontario had been in lengthy negotiations with Samsung Group to bring 16,000 green-collar jobs to the province, part of an ambitious plan by the Korean industrial giant to manufacture and deploy green-energy gear.

But at the 11th hour the province fails to step up and Samsung goes with Michigan, New York or Ohio instead.

Opposition parties would be accusing the McGuinty government of "losing jobs to the Americans." Industry groups would be calling Ontario a laggard without vision or guts.

Now, back to this universe. Ontario is the winner.

It kept a $7 billion clean-energy deal from flowing south, and it did it by putting the right regulations and policies in place to attract that investment.

Samsung, which has committed to building four manufacturing plants in Ontario and developing 2,500 megawatts of wind and solar projects, said it and its consortium partners were lured to Ontario because this province’s new Green Energy Act and feed-in-tariff program stood out in North America.

The response so far?

Boos from the opposition, which is accusing the government of cutting a backroom deal with a foreign company that will lead to higher electricity prices.

This kind of rhetoric ignores the fact that we’re living in 2010, not 1960.

Electricity infrastructure is aging and replacing it is going to cost more – more so in a world that puts a price on carbon emissions.

The days of cheap, dirty electricity are coming to an end. There’s no way around it.

Another reaction to the Samsung deal has been panic from local power producers, including wind and solar developers, who argue they’re being treated unfairly because of special treatment given to Samsung.

Samsung is getting roughly 4 per cent more for the solar and wind power it produces than other participants in Ontario’s feed-in-tariff (FIT) program, which already pays a generous amount to producers of renewable electricity.

The government calls this extra incentive an "economic adder," which is used as a flexible negotiating tool – not unlike tax breaks used to lure foreign investment.

It’s expected this adder, which over 25 years has a net-present value of $437 million, will contribute $1.60 more a year to the average residential electricity bill.

Put another way, that’s an increase of 0.15 per cent on the power bill of a typical household.

As one industry observer said, that’s the cost of paying for a large double-double at Tim Horton’s once a year.

The $437 million also comes with many strings attached. If Samsung and its consortium partners don’t deliver on manufacturing and jobs, then they forfeit the adder.

A legitimate question, however, is whether other parties can qualify for the same kind of economic adder granted to Samsung.

At least two other consortia, both based primarily in Ontario, are attempting to establish supply chains in the province to manufacture wind turbines and create thousands of jobs.

They may not have a long track record, and they may lack the brand power and deep pockets of a Samsung, but they are local companies deserving of local support and the confidence of their own government.

Premier Dalton McGuinty made clear last week that if any other consortia – local or foreign – want to talk about manufacturing, energy development and job creation on a large scale, then he’s all ears online payday loans.

He should be held to those words, for the sake of fairness.

Speaking of fairness, why has 500 megawatts of transmission capacity been set aside for the Korean consortium when everyone else has to duke it out for access?

The industry protest on this point is understandable.

The whole point of the Green Energy Act and FIT program is to provide equal access to the grid and electricity rates that are the same for all participants.

Only 2,500 megawatts of transmission capacity are available in Ontario, and they’re particularly scarce in the areas of southwest Ontario where Samsung is being given priority.

Other developers waiting patiently for grid access see the Korean giant as a VIP being shuffled to the front of the line. They’re angry.

But on further reflection, taking this position is akin to saying the government doesn’t have a right to reserve transmission for any big project, like a natural gas power plant?

In fact, it did exactly that when it negotiated a deal to have Sithe Global, a large U.S. power developer, build an 840-megawatt natural gas plant in Brampton. It may be a hard pill for some to swallow, but why is the Samsung deal any different? Critics, however, have another concern. They charge that the McGuinty government broke protocol by striking a sole-sourced deal with Samsung. The insinuation here is that a request for proposals should have been put out so Samsung’s rivals could submit competing bids. Opposition parties, for example, are already calling this another e-health scandal in waiting.

The leap of logic here is mind-boggling. Governments put out tenders for specific things, like fleet vehicles, office equipment and IT systems as a way to notify industry of a particular need. The vague but ongoing task of building the economy and creating jobs, on the other hand, is an open invitation to anyone with a proposal, and you can bet those proposals are being shopped around to other job-hungry jurisdictions.

We’re in a seller’s market. This isn’t about Ontario ensuring competition. This is about Ontario having to desperately compete for jobs during difficult economic times.

Indeed, the province’s strategy in this regard is quite clever, even if it is somewhat sneaky. Think about it. There appears nothing in this Samsung deal that impacts the budget. The McGuinty government is, in effect, using electricity rates to cover the cost of a major economic development strategy – kind of like adding a special fee on gasoline sales to lure a major automaker to the province.

A controversial approach to be sure, particularly with the HST coming to our hydro bills in July, but certainly this is one creative way of investing in jobs without adding to a record provincial deficit.

The Samsung deal isn’t perfect, but it’s pretty darn good. Now, Mr. Premier, you just need to open your ears and land a couple of large local deals. They’re out there, in your own backyard. You just have to listen and have a little faith in Ontario entrepreneurs.

thamilton@thestar.ca

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California is hurtling into the budgetary abyss — and it’s not alone.

Across the nation, state tax collections in the first three quarters of 2009 posted their steepest decline in at least 46 years, according to a report this month from the public policy research arm of the State University of New York.

At least 30 states raised taxes in their most recently completed fiscal year — which ended in most cases in mid-2009. Even more cut services. All told, states raised $117 billion to fill last year’s budget gaps, the Pew Center on the States estimates.

Yet despite all those new taxes and deep cutbacks, pressure on state finances continues to build. Economists warn that without a new round of federal stimulus spending, states could face another round of layoffs that could kneecap an already shaky economic recovery.

"We could see a real ripple effect if the states don’t take a balanced approach" by balancing cutbacks with tax raises and other new revenue, said Jon Shure, deputy director of the state fiscal project at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities in Washington.

State and local governments have cut 132,000 jobs since August 2008, the center says. Fiscal problems appear most acute in California, whose general obligation bonds were downgraded this week after Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger declared a fiscal emergency.

The state has already said it will increase tuition by a third in the University of California system, among other cash-raising moves. At one point, it was projected to spend nearly 50% more than it stands to garner in revenue in this fiscal year, by one count. California has asked for federal help and warned it could run out of cash in March.

And California’s not the only state facing an almost unfathomable shortfall. Like California, Arizona and Illinois face budget gaps above 40% of projected general fund spending, according to Pew data.

Arizona put its state office buildings on sale this week in a bid to raise $700 million. The University of Illinois furloughed some workers this week after the state failed to come up with $436 million in expected funds. Budget officers in those two states describe their outlooks for fiscal 2010 as "dire," according to a National Conference of State Legislatures report.

Alaska, Nevada, New Jersey and New York face gaps of at least 30% of their planned general fund spending by the end of this fiscal year. A dozen more states face a fiscal 2010 budget gap of between 20% and 29%.

"California is playing out on the biggest stage, but there are states around the nation facing problems of equal or greater magnitude," said Corina Eckl, who runs the fiscal affairs program at the National Conference of State Legislatures in Denver. "We are seeing some frightening situations."

Big shortfalls scare legislators because states by law must balance their budgets every year. After revenue and spending rose steadily in the middle of this decade, bolstered by a housing bubble that boosted employment and fed a stream of property transfer fees, state funding went into freefall when the recession started at the end of 2007.

Given the depth of the recession, few states are expecting an uptick in employment or consumer spending that would translate into bigger tax collections anytime soon. Nine states are forecasting they won’t return to their peak revenue years of 2007 or 2008 until at least 2014.

Adding to the pressure, job losses spur demand for the services states devote the lion’s share of their budgets to: education and Medicaid, which provides healthcare for low-income people.

"The needs grow as states’ ability to meet those needs declines," said economist Andrew Reschovsky, a professor at the University of Wisconsin in Madison.

So far, the worst cuts have been avoided with the help of billions of dollars of federal stimulus money — including $135 billion for education and Medicaid.

But the flow of those funds will start to slow down in the second half of 2010 and will stop altogether at year-end, unless Congress appropriates more money for state assistance.

States have used $53.6 billion in Medicaid funding through Jan. 8, according to government data. If Congress doesn’t extend the Medicaid funding beyond the end of the year, "states are looking at a stimulus cliff," said Robert B. Ward, deputy director of the Rockefeller Institute of Government at the State University of New York at Albany.

The only way to make up those shortfalls is through more new taxes, cutbacks and borrowings.

Local and state governments have had little problem borrowing in the bond market, where analysts expect issuance of $400 billion or more this year. California has had to pay higher-than-average interest rates to sell its debt, but there seems to be little fear of a default, given the state’s giant economy and its relatively small $64 billion worth of general obligation bonds outstanding.

But borrowing is no help in fixing so-called structural deficits, in which spending exceeds revenue over a prolonged stretch. And so far there has been little sign legislators are willing to make the obligatory tough choices, particularly issuing more or higher taxes.

Many of the so-called fixes for current state deficits are mere Band-Aids that push the problem forward rather than address it, observers said.

"It’s surprising that political leaders don’t seem to be taking seriously the magnitude of the problems," said Reschovsky. "You would hope it wouldn’t come to this, but it might take schools closing and programs being eliminated to create a sense of urgency." 

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A Toronto group could be closing in on a purchase of the Phoenix Coyotes hockey team.

The National Hockey League could finalize a deal for Ice Edge Holdings to buy the Coyotes in the coming days, according to sources familiar with the situation.

Officials familiar with the negotiations between the NHL and various ownership groups said that other groups are still talking to the NHL but Ice Edge was the farthest along in the talks. They also said Ice Edge was talking to the NHL regarding some unconventional financing to help get the deal done.

Details of what the entails were not disclosed. Ice Edge has been meeting with NHL officials as well as the city of Glendale. The Phoenix suburb owns Jobing.com Arena where the Coyotes play.

The team is in Chapter 11 bankruptcy and is owned by the NHL. The league bought the team for $140 million in October after a U.S. Bankruptcy Court judge turned down a $243 million offer by Research in Motion CEO Jim Balsillie to buy the team from the then owner Jerry Moyes and move them to Hamilton, Ontario.

Ice Edge had put in a $148 million bid for the Coyotes this summer during bankruptcy proceedings but pulled back that offer. The investment group restarted talks with the NHL after the league acquired the financially struggling team no fax payday loans.

Ice Edge had talked about keeping the team in Arizona but playing some Coyotes home games outside of the Phoenix market in Canadian cities without NHL teams. The ownership group won’t start formal arena lease negotiations with Glendale until after a deal with the NHL is struck.

The Coyotes have done well on the ice this year but struggle with attendance and finances. The team is averaging 9,774 announced fans per game, according to ESPN. That’s the lowest average in the NHL and among the major pro sports leagues in the U.S.

In November, Forbes magazine pegged the Coyotes as being worth $138 million, the lowest value in the NHL.

Neither Ice Edge or the NHL responded to requests for comment. Coyotes spokesman Rob Crean referred questions to the NHL. Glendale spokeswoman Jennifer Stein declined comment.

The Coyotes have lost $300 million since moving to the Phoenix market from Winnipeg in 2002. They’ve not made the NHL playoffs since 2002 and lost many of its ticket buyers after Moyes put the team into Chapter 11 in May.

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The solicitations have been flooding people’s mailboxes lately: Pay a bit more on your electricity bill for 100 percent clean wind power. Or, the fliers say, buy "green power certificates" to offset your global warming emissions.

Close to a million electricity customers have signed up for such payments voluntarily, and the amount of electricity sold in this way has nearly tripled since 2005. But the participants are in a distinct minority, with a sign-up rate of only about 2 percent in programs run by utilities.

The government has looked at the question of whether these programs really cause more renewable energy projects to get built, and says it is difficult to draw an overall conclusion. Its experts say they believe that some green power programs work better than others.

At least one major program has come under fire from regulators. Last year, a Florida Power and Light green power program was terminated by the state’s Public Service Commission after an audit found that promised solar power facilities were far behind schedule. The program had more than 38,000 customers, and was once the sixth-largest in the country. The audit also found that the vast majority of homeowners’ payments went into marketing and administration.

About a quarter of the country’s utilities offer green power programs, and the way they are structured varies. In practice, no big utility delivers 100 percent renewable power to any customer, because electricity from all sources — coal plants, wind farms, solar panels — is mingled in the same wires. The utilities are essentially collecting extra money that they promise to use to support the development of renewable energy, a pitch that some customers find persuasive.

"It’s about what’s good for the planet," said Mark Renfrow, a Dallas homeowner who this summer began paying an extra $26 or so a month to his electric company, Direct Energy, for 100 percent wind power.

But some advocates for electricity consumers argue that the payments make little difference. Matthew Freedman, a staff lawyer with the Utility Reform Network, a ratepayer advocacy group in California, said, "There is very little evidence to suggest that customer subscriptions have resulted in any new additions of renewable power."

Early this year, the city government of Durango, Colo., stopped buying renewable power from its utility, saving $45,000 a year. The clean electricity had cost 40 percent extra — and the city manager, Ron LeBlanc, was irked that part of the payment went into putting solar panels on a school in a different city.

"Paying more and then investing in a community 16 miles away was offensive to a lot of us," he said.

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New orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods fell unexpectedly in October, according to government data on Wednesday that reinforced views of a gradual economic recovery from recession.

The Commerce Department said durable goods orders dropped 0.6 percent after rising by an upwardly revised 2.0 percent in September. New orders in September were previously reported to have increased 1.4 percent.

Analysts polled by Reuters forecast orders rising 0 cash advance loan no fax.5 percent in October. Durable goods orders are a leading indicator of manufacturing activity, which in turn provides a good measure for overall business health.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

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The U.S. trade deficit widened in September by an unexpectedly large 18.2 percent, the largest increase in more than 10 years, as oil prices rose for the seventh straight month and imports from China bounded higher.

Adding urgency to talks President Barack Obama will have with Chinese leaders in coming days, the monthly trade gap grew to $36.5 billion, from a slightly revised estimate of $30.8 billion in August, the Commerce Department said on Friday.

The monthly trade gap grew to $36.5 billion, from a slightly revised estimate of $30.8 billion in August, the Commerce Department said on Friday.

Wall Street analysts had expected the shortfall to grow modestly in September to around $31.65 billion.

Both U.S. exports and imports had their best month since December 2008. But in a sign of renewed U.S. economic growth, imports grew 5.8 percent in September, the biggest monthly gain since March 1993, while exports rose 2.9 percent.

Some analysts had expected more of an export boost because the drop in the value of the dollar against other major currencies makes American goods more competitive overseas.

But “the overall upturn in U.S. demand is trumping the fall of the dollar,” said Craig Peckham, an equity trading strategist with Jefferies and Company in New York payday loan companies.

TRADE FLOWS PICKING UP

Imports of industrial supplies and materials showed the biggest gain in September, suggesting that U.S. manufacturers are ramping up for production.

International trade flows are picking up as massive stimulus from governments and central banks lift the global economy out of its deepest swoon since the 1930s.

The EU statistics office Eurostate said the euro-zone economy grew 0.4 percent in the third quarter from the second quarter, snapping the region’s recession. For details, see

The U.S. government said last month the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate 3.5 percent in the third quarter after four contractionary quarters.

The average price for imported oil leapt to $68.17 per barrel and imports from the Organization of Petroleum Export Countries increased to $11.9 billion in September, both the highest since November 2008.

A separate report showed U.S. import prices rose for the third straight month in October, pushed up by a jump in the cost of fuel imports and the depreciating dollar. 

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