Finance and Economic

Colleges are bracing for another year of high demand for financial aid — and that means students need to get their applications in as quickly as possible.

Federal student loans remain plentiful, but other types of aid from states and colleges are more limited. By missing one of the many deadlines, students could receive fewer sought-after grants and scholarships that don’t have to be repaid, and end up having to apply for loans that do.

Blame the continued weak economy for the stiff competition for aid. Unemployment remains high. Families that have burned through cash reserves now are applying for aid for the first time, aid officials say.

In addition, a bumper crop of high school seniors and more people returning to school for advanced degrees will add to the aid demand, says Patricia Nash Christel, a spokeswoman for student loan giant Sallie Mae.

The first step to getting aid is filling out the Free Application for Federal Student Aid at fafsa.ed.gov. It not only will determine your federal aid, but states and colleges also use the FAFSA to award their money.

The earliest you can submit a FAFSA is Jan. 1. States and schools set their own deadlines for when the FAFSA must be submitted.

Schools often set priority deadlines so applications submitted by that date will be the first batch looked at. Deadlines can differ widely, so check your school’s website.

Parents often want to file their tax returns before filling out the FAFSA. Although having an up-to-date tax return makes filling out the application easier, it’s better to get the application in by the deadline using last year’s tax return and then correcting the information later.

Besides the FAFSA, many schools are creating their own aid forms or requiring families to submit additional documents to make sure the aid is going to students in need.

What if you blow all the deadlines? You can still qualify for federal Stafford student loans by submitting the FAFSA any time during the academic year.

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All 50 states were hit with increases of more than one percentage point in their unemployment rates last year, according to a new report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The sharpest rise occurred in Michigan, where the average jobless rate for 2009 was 13.6 percent, up 5.3 points from 2008’s average of 8.3 percent.

The only other state with an increase of more than five points was Nevada, which soared from an average unemployment rate of 6.7 percent two years ago to 11.8 percent last year.

New York’s increase was 3.1 points — from an annual jobless rate of 5 freecreditscore.3 percent in 2008 to 8.4 percent in 2009.

The figures were contained in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ yearend report for 2009, which included a full set of annual averages. The results for all 50 states and the District of Columbia can be accessed by clicking here.

North Dakota was the most stable state in 2009. Its annual unemployment rate of 4.3 percent was just 1.1 points higher than its 2008 average of 3.2 percent.

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The number of Americans filing for initial unemployment insurance fell sharply last week, according to government data released Thursday.

There were 440,000 initial jobless claims filed in the week ended Feb. 6, down 43,000 from a revised 483,000 the previous week, the Labor Department said in a weekly report.

Economists were expecting initial claims to drop to 465,000, according to a consensus estimate from Briefing.com.

The 4-week moving average of initial claims, which smoothes out volatility in the measure, was 468,500. That’s down 1,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 469,500.

A Labor Department spokesman said the snow storm that crippled much of the East Coast last week did not impact the number of jobless claims filed.

"Next week’s numbers will definitely be impacted by weather," said Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities. "But a drop in claims fits with the more positive news we saw in the January jobs report."

The Labor Department said last week that the U.S. unemployment rate fell unexpectedly in January to 9.7% from 10%. Businesses shed 20,000 jobs for the month, far fewer than the 150,000 jobs that were lost in December.

"There are some clear positives in the labor market," Vitner said, pointing to the manufacturing sector, to which some workers have returned to work after being unemployed for a short period of time Business Card Holders.

Still, weekly initial claims totals remain "extremely high" and it is difficult to glean anything about the underlying trends in the job market from just one week of data, Vitner warned.

Continuing claims: The government said 4,538,000 people filed continuing claims in the week ended Jan. 30, the most recent data available. That’s down 79,000 from the preceding week’s revised 4,617,000 claims.

Economists were expecting continuing claims to have declined 2,000 to 4,600,000.

The 4-week moving average of continuing claims was 4,603,500, a drop of 17,750 from the preceding week’s revised average of 4,621,250.

However, many economists say the decline in continuing claims reflects a growing number of filers who have dropped off the jobless rolls into extended unemployment benefits.

Continuing claims reflect people filing each week after their initial claim until the end of their standard benefits, which usually last 26 weeks. The figures do not include those people who have moved to state or federal extensions, or people whose benefits have expired.

"The number of people receiving extended benefits is unprecedented," Vitner said.  

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The United States, which led the world into recession, may now see its fragile recovery stifled by events across the globe.

Dangerously high debt levels in Greece and some other European countries could trigger a wave of national defaults, undermining revival in Europe and probably in the United States as well.

And China’s recent steps to cool its economy also complicate President Barack Obama’s plan to attack high unemployment here by increasing U.S. exports. Financial markets have been whipsawed over concerns that debt problems in Greece — and perhaps also in high-debt Spain, Portugal, Ireland and even Italy — might infect stronger European neighbors.

Euro zone countries are key U.S. trading partners, and the United States can’t meet Obama’s goal of doubling exports in five years — or reap the benefits in new jobs — if debt default contagion spreads throughout Europe.

China is also deemed an important growing export market for U.S. goods. But Beijing’s recent steps to curtail bank lending and its economic saber-rattling at the United States have increased trade tension between the world’s largest economy and a country poised to soon surpass Japan for second place.

The Obama administration says it wants to move away from an economy fueled by heavy consumer spending and reliance on imports toward what economic adviser Lawrence Summers calls "an economy that’s based on investment, that’s based on exports, that’s based on saving payday loans." Unfortunately, all the other major economies also are counting on digging out, at least in part, through expanded exports. For every nation to be able to meet such a goal, of course, is a mathematical challenge.

The financial turmoil in Europe does have one potential silver lining for the U.S.: The uncertainty has raised the value of the dollar as measured against the currencies of 15 of the nation’s 16 biggest trading partners.

But there’s a downside to that, too. A stronger dollar makes made-in-America goods more expensive in overseas markets.

The U.S. trade deficit surged to a larger-than-expected $40.18 billion in December, the biggest imbalance in 12 months.

The Commerce Department said the December deficit was 10.4 percent higher than November. It was much larger than the $36 billion economists expected, with much of the increase coming from a big jump in oil imports.

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The Greater Capital Association of Realtors installed new board officers to lead the organization in Albany, N.Y.

The group also recognized five Realtors with 40 years of service during a Jan. 14 meeting at the Mohawk Golf Club in Niskayuna.

GCAR officers for 2010 are: President Laurene Curtin of Albany Realty Group in Colonie; President-elect Paul Semanek of Realty USA in Clifton Park; Secretary/Treasurer Nina Amdaon of Weichert Realtors Northeast Group in Loudonville.

Five Realtors were acknowledged for their four decades working in the real estate industry:

D guaranteed high risk personal loans. Wallace Bryce of Bryce Real Estate in Troy; Joyce Carlow of Weichert Realtors Northeast Group in Loudonville; Jeffrey Christiana of Prudential Manor Homes in Colonie; Robert King of Prudential Manor Homes in Rensselaer; and C. Douglas Volean of Prudential Manor Homes in Clifton Park.

GCAR has 3,100 members, including real estate agents and brokers working in 11 local counties.

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O’FALLON, ILL. — Balke Brown Associates of St. Louis plans to start work this spring on a 232-unit, high-end apartment development near the intersection of Green Mount Road and Frank Scott Parkway East.

The CEO, Steve Brown, said he thinks Parkway Lakeside Apartment Houses will be the premier upscale apartment complex in the St. Louis area.

Brown said the $27 million project makes sense because of its location. He said there is a strong market for luxury apartments in the area around Scott Air Force Base, which employs about 15,000 people and is largely unaffected by the current recession.

"(Many) people don’t understand that Scott Air Force Base is the Number 3 employer in the St. Louis area," Brown said. "Scott is growing and adding people."

The apartments will be built on a 20-acre site on the north side of Frank Scott Parkway, about 2,000 feet west of Green Mount Road. It will be adjacent to Green Mount Lakes Apartments, built by Balke Brown Associates five years ago and later sold. The two projects are at the edge of a booming restaurant and retail district and about a minute’s drive from Interstate 64. The company owns five acres of adjacent land planned for commercial development.

The building contractor will be Holland Construction Services of Swansea. Riverstone Residential of Dallas will manage the property for Balke Brown.

Humphreys & Partners of Dallas designed it, using the "big house" concept pioneered by that firm.

The 20 two-story apartment structures will have 10 to 14 units and be designed to look like large houses. The buildings will have only single front entrances with no breezeways or exposed stairways. Many units will have enclosed parking. Other amenities will include fireplaces, patios, balconies, a clubhouse, a swimming pool, a putting green, a walking trail and a recreational lake.

Prices will range from $950 monthly for a one-bedroom apartment to $1,650 for a two-bedroom unit with two-car garage no teletrack payday loans.

Some aldermen questioned the company’s proposal to make some parking spaces a foot shorter than the city’s 19-foot requirement, but the City Council ultimately agreed to variances that will allow 11 fewer parking spaces than the 476 that otherwise would be required by city code.

Brown said the council agreed that 60 percent of those could be 18 feet rather than 19 feet deep and said the variances will allow a design that will feature 45 percent open or green space.

"We made the argument that green is better than black," he said. "I think the project would have been less eco-friendly" if built to the letter of the code.

Ted Shekell, O’Fallon’s planning and zoning director, said city officials welcome the project.

"Balke Brown has been a great part of our town so far," he said. In addition to the earlier apartment development, the company also built an office building on the other side of I-64.

Shekell said he thinks the new development will be "a good fit for O’Fallon and this area. In a tough economic environment, we’re happy to have them interested in our community. I think it’s the kind of project you need for people who aren’t looking to buy (single-family houses) right now."

Shekell said development has slowed in O’Fallon, but the city of 30,000 still had 110 new houses started in 2009. That’s down from a 15-year average of 240, but house building is a near standstill in many area communities and around the country.

"Scott is a leveling influence on the economy of this area," Shekell said. There has been a downturn but investment has not stopped."

Brown said the area "feels like a young Chesterfield" to him.

"There is no recession there," he said.

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The beleaguered auto industry is poised for a slow but steady turnaround in 2010 that will usher in an era of profitability and job growth after years of declines, according to a new industry forecast.

The Conference Board of Canada, a private-sector economic forecaster, said the auto sector isn't necessarily out of trouble but there are encouraging signs that profits will return in 2010 and strengthen each year through to at least 2014.

"The Canadian auto industry appears to have turned a corner in the second half of 2009 and is expected to return to profitability in 2010," economist Sabrina Browarski wrote in the report.

"However, production will remain below historical levels," Browarski added. "Manufacturers will have to make concerted and ongoing efforts to streamline product line-ups, control costs, and innovate to maintain profitability."

The Conference Board said the industry will close 2009 with a $2.3-billion loss before taxes, but Canadian auto assemblers including the Japanese carmakers Toyota and Honda will have a collective profit of $100 million in the final quarter.

Still, the Conference Board expects Canadian production for all of 2009 to be about half of what it was in 2007, due to a halt in production by Chrysler and General Motors at the beginning of 2009.

"In fact, real production this year will fall below levels not seen since the 1992 recession," the report said.

The forecast for 2010 sees the industry returning to the black with before-tax profits of $263 million, a number which will rise to just under $2 billion in 2014.

The Conference Board indicated that conditions south of the border will determine the pace of recovery for Canadian auto producers because 84 per cent of production is destined for the U.S. market.

In the United States, vehicle sales are expected to edge up to 11.6 million units in 2010, with industry revenues rising by nearly 38 per cent.

Tony Faria, co-director of the automotive research centre at the University of Windsor, said the report is on par with analysts' predictions that the market is slowly returning.

"The expectation is that 2010 (and) 2011 will be rather slow growth years in the auto industry," he said.

Faria said the North American auto market demand will rise from 12.3 million vehicles in 2009 to as much 14 million in 2010. In the years before the recession hit, the market had called for about 20 million vehicles each year.

"It's going to be a slightly better market next year than this year, although the market's going to be well below the level that we became accustomed to from 1999 through 2007, which were nine extraordinarily good years."

Auto analyst Dennis DesRosiers was less optimistic than the report, saying there is too much competing information that makes it difficult to tell whether or not the industry is taking a turn for the better.

"My independent assessment is that this industry is still in a lot of trouble and a lot of denial…(as to) how serious the issues still are," DesRosiers said.

"I see all kinds of positives, but I don't know whether it leads to profitability or not, or whether it leads to these companies' long-term survival or not. But I see an equal amount of negatives."

The report said cost-cutting measures, such as labour agreements between the Canadian Auto Workers union and subsidiaries of Chrysler, General Motors and Ford (NYSE: F) will aid in the return to profitability.

General Motors and Chrysler have also reduced costs in other ways, such as cutting dealership networks, and reducing the number of shifts in operation. They also received a total of $13 billion in loans from the Canadian and Ontario governments.

"As of today, the outlook for the Canadian, Ontario and U.S. governments getting a good chunk of their loan money back is a lot more optimistic than it would have been six months ago," Faria said.

The Conference Board projects employment to rise 2.4 per cent to 53,200 workers in 2010 from 51,900 this year, after falling 19.4 per cent from 64,400 employees in 2008.

Next year's predicted employment gains would come after four years of steady declines.

Faria said there will continue to be job losses in assembly jobs for a short period of time, as the Detroit Three work to get production capacity in line with sales volumes.

But he added, some automakers are beginning to call employees back to work, and the trend will continue as production ramps up through 2010.

Toyota Canada announced Dec. 10 it is hiring 800 more people to raise production of a popular SUV built in Woodstock, Ont. by introducing a second shift.

GM Canada said last month it will recall 150 laid-off employees to its CAMI facility in Ingersoll, Ont., to meet strong demand for its 2010 Chevrolet Equinox and GMC Terrain. The company will also bring back 600 workers to its Oshawa, Ont., plant in 2011 to begin production of the company's new Buick Regal.

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Bank of America pledged Monday to increase its lending to small and medium sized businesses by $5 billion next year. The announcement immediately followed a White House meeting at which President Obama pressured the nation’s biggest bailed-out banks to start reinvesting in the rest of the economy.

"Bank of America is determined to do our part to help the economy grow next year and reduce unemployment by making every good loan we can make," CEO Ken Lewis said in a statement.

Lewis acknowledged the key role that small businesses play in creating jobs, calling them the "lifeblood" of the U.S. economy. "Our improved financial condition and our optimism about the economy will allow us to step up lending to support these clients," he said.

Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), based in Charlotte, N.C., is currently the second largest small business lender in the U.S., behind only Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500), according to reports filed to the Treasury Department. Bank of America ended September with $41.9 billion in small business loans outstanding. That tally includes credit lines, credit cards, traditional loans and other financing.

But like most other big banks, Bank of America has pared back its lending through the recession. Since April, when top banks began submitting monthly reports on their small business lending, Bank of America has shaved its outstanding loan balance by 5%, or $2.2 billion.

Bank of America also cut back drastically this year on its lending through the Small Business Administration’s flagship loan program. SBA lending represents a small sliver of all small business lending, but it’s an important indicator of trends in the broader credit market.

Bank of America made 308 SBA-backed loans, totaling $17.6 million, in the SBA’s 2009 fiscal year, which ended in September. That’s a 90% drop from the bank’s year-earlier lending, when Bank of America made 3,354 loans, totaling $121.4 million.

Bank of America has struggled this year with big losses in its small business loan portfolio.

Last fall, as the Wall Street crisis turned critical in the wake of Lehman Brothers’ collapse, CEO Ken Lewis famously referred to the bank’s small business portfolio as a "damn disaster." In the first nine months of this year, Bank of America wrote off $2 guaranteed payday loans.2 billion in small business lending as bad debt, a default rate of almost 16%. By comparison, the bank’s charge-off rate on commercial loans to larger companies was just 1%.

But the bank’s executives have recently taken a more optimistic tone. "We think we are close to the peak in small businesses losses," CFO Joe Price told analysts in October.

Obama turns up the heat: The next set of Treasury reports are due later this week, with updates on October lending from the 22 biggest recipients of government bailout funds. In previous six months, those banks cut their small business lending by a cumulative total of $10.5 billion.

In his Monday meeting with the chief executives of 12 of the nation’s largest banks, President Obama emphasized the "extraordinary assistance" the financial industry received from taxpayers.

"We expect some results," Obama told the bankers. "I’m getting too many letters from small businesses who explain that they are credit worthy, and banks that they’ve had a long-term relationship with are still having problems giving them loans."

Banking industry representatives point to rising default rates, and say they’re having trouble finding creditworthy small business borrowers. Obama is unimpressed by that excuse.

"I urged these institutions here today to go back and take a third and fourth look about how they are operating when it comes to small business and medium-sized business lending," Obama said after his meeting.

All of the participating banks said they would be willing to institute a policy of "second looks" at loans that had thus far been rejected, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said in a press briefing after Obama’s meeting.

So far, despite multiple attempts by Washington policymakers to revive the small business lending market, bank vaults have stayed slammed shut. The White House is trying yet again to change that.

"I think that the bully pulpit can be a powerful thing," Gibbs said. 

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Employers are ramping up bonus payments this year to help retain the best workers as the economy slowly improves, according to a consulting firm survey released Thursday.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc., an outplacement consultancy, said 64% of employers are planning to hand out holiday bonus checks this year, up from 54% last year.

The poll of 100 human resources executives also found that more companies are planning to give bigger bonus checks this year.

A full 8% of the employers surveyed plan to increase the amount they award this year, compared with none last year.

While employers remain reluctant to expand payrolls, there is growing concern that job market improvements in 2010 could bring an exodus of workers, according to John A. Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

"Companies are not quite ready to ramp up hiring, but they are beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel," Challenger said in a statement.

Last week, the U.S. Labor Department said employers cut 11,000 jobs in October, which was far below any of the job losses posted over the last 23 months. The nation’s jobless rate improved to 10% from a 26-year high of 10 Internet Payday loans.2% the month before.

Still, employers have cut 7.2 million jobs since the beginning of 2008. And most economists expect unemployment to remain high well into next year.

The dismal job market and the looming threat of layoffs has weighed on worker morale, Challenger said, and employers are hoping a bigger bonus will help keep their employees happy.

"Companies are also sending a message that we appreciate that this has been a tough year for everyone, and that the workers’ part in ensuring continued survival is recognized," he said.

The poll also found that most companies are tying the size of bonus checks to the performance of the company or individual. According to the survey, 63% of those awarding holiday bonuses are basing them on performance.

Despite the overall increase in the number of companies awarding bonuses, 16% of respondents said that, while they awarded bonuses in 2008, they did not plan to do so this year. That’s up from 13% last year.  

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South Korea’s won, Asia’s second best-performing currency this year, may be “affected” as the nation’s current-account surplus narrows by about 50 percent in 2010 and capital inflows slow, a central bank official said.

The surplus, forecast to widen to more than $40 billion this year, will decrease by “half next year as domestic demand revives, imports increase and oil prices continue a modest rise,” Ahn Byung Chan, head of the international bureau at the Bank of Korea, said in an interview yesterday. Inflows of investment may be slowed by the global financial crisis, he said.

“The unrest in the international financial markets won’t evolve into a systemic risk but if the wobbles are prolonged, the Korean won rate will be affected,” Ahn said, declining to comment on any level or direction for the currency. “Capital inflows won’t be larger than this year.”

Finance Minister Yoon Jeung Hyun said in October it is “premature” to unwind expansionary policies as the nation still faces risks from a possible delay in the global economic recovery and asset price instability. Exporters helped drive acceleration in economic growth to 2.9 percent last quarter from the previous three months, the fastest pace in seven years.

“This is probably mostly an attempt to talk down the won,” said Dariusz Kowalczyk, chief investment strategist at SJS Markets Ltd. in Hong Kong. “A lot of the economic pickup this year has been due to the earlier won weakness. They wouldn’t want to lose the edge the currency has provided.”

Bullish Forecasts

The won was little changed at 1,155 per at 9:16 a.m. in Seoul, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It touched 1,149.4 on Nov. 17, the strongest level since September 2008. The currency strengthened 9 percent this year, second in Asia only to the 16 percent gain in the Indonesian rupiah.

The won will rise to 1,070 per dollar by the end of June, Kowalczyk predicted. That is more bullish than the 1,110 median forecast of 22 analysts in a Bloomberg News survey.

The current account swung to a $37 billion surplus in the first 10 months of the year after a deficit of $6.41 billion in 2008, the first shortfall since 1997, central bank data showed. The current account is the broadest measure of trade, tracking the flow of goods, services and investment income.

Foreign-exchange reserves climbed to a record $270.9 billion last month from $264.2 billion at the end of October, the Bank of Korea said yesterday. Reserves slumped to their lowest level in almost four years in November 2008 after the won declined and the global financial crisis made it difficult for companies to refinance overseas debt.

The central bank probably bought dollars to slow gains in the won, Mitul Kotecha, Hong Kong-based head of global foreign- exchange strategy at Calyon, said yesterday.

‘No Complaints’

November’s reserves were boosted by investment inflows and a weaker U.S. dollar which increased the value of holdings in euros and yen. Ahn said the greenback will weaken until the Federal Reserve increases interest rates. He said a stronger greenback won’t necessarily translate to won appreciation.

The competitiveness of Korean companies contributed more to the recovery in exports than a weaker currency, Ahn said. Hyundai Motor Co., the nation’s largest automaker, more than tripled third-quarter profit from a year earlier on a weaker won and surging sales in the U.S. and China.

South Korea’s exports rose 18.8 percent in November from a year earlier, the first increase in more than a year, the Ministry of Knowledge Economy said Dec. 1. Imports rose 4.7 percent, driven by higher consumer spending and fuel costs. Crude oil gained 74 percent this year.

“The Korean won appreciated a lot since March, but still our exports are growing,” he said. “These days there are no complaints among exporters and importers. We decide our exchange rate policy. Their opinion is not important.”

Capital Movements

Foreign investors bought $22.9 billion more local shares than they sold this year through yesterday, helping drive the Kospi stock index 42 percent higher. Stocks fell 4.7 percent on Nov. 27 after Dubai World sought to delay payments on its debt.

“Any similar case to the Dubai shock will slow the inflows,” Ahn said. “A rise in stock prices towards 1,600 reduces incentives for foreigners to jump in.”

South Korea may discuss measures to address inflows of speculative capital that are causing the currency to strengthen, Kim Jong Chang, governor of the Financial Supervisory Service, said on Nov. 19.

“We will watch the global discussions about imposing taxes on capital movements,” said Ahn. “So far, we think capital inflows haven’t had any side effects on the Korean financial market. We are monitoring it carefully.”

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