Finance and Economic

Greece was pulled back from impending default Saturday, when eurozone finance ministers signed off on a vital loan installment. But the country’s international creditors are showing more concern over whether it can service its debt in the long run.

Athens will get a euro12 billion ($17.39 billion) tranche of its existing euro110 billion rescue package by July 15, in time to meet several bond repayment deadlines this month and next, the finance ministers of the 17 countries that share the euro said in a statement Saturday evening. The eurozone and the International Monetary Fund will also continue to prop up Greece’s struggling economy in the coming years, with a second package of aid loans to be finalized by September.

While the renewed commitments save Greece from immediate collapse, even its international creditors _ long the biggest optimists on the country’s prospects _ are warning that getting down a debt of 160 percent of economic output will be a difficult balancing act.

“The Greek government debt will remain for many years at a high level and, therefore, subject to possible adverse developments that cannot be predicted,” the European Commission, the EU’s executive and one of the three institutions in charge of Greece’s bailout, said in a report published Saturday.

Especially lower than expected economic growth “would put the debt trajectory on a clearly unsustainable upward path,” the commission said.

In an illustration showing several scenario’s for Greece’s debt load, growth of just 1 percentage point below expectations would leave Greece’s debt around 170 percent of gross domestic product past 2020, with the graph pointing firmly upward.

The report, the basis for the ministers’ decision to release the July aid installment and prepare a new bailout, is the most pessimistic assessment from the commission yet. Private analysts and economists have long questioned the sustainability of Greece’s debt. However, the European Union, the European Central Bank and the IMF have so far, at least publicly, upheld their belief that Greece’s situation is manageable.

The Commission still maintains that it is “not unrealistic to assume” that Greece can cut its deficits to the targets set out in its bailout program, and thereby slowly chip away at its debt. But the report puts a sizable question mark over the country’s ability _ and willingness _ to implement the reforms its creditors say are necessary to get the economy growing again.

“Solvency depends on the political and social conditions which allow or not the implementation of the required policies,” the report cautions.

The warning has a clear ring to it, following weeks of sometimes dramatic back and forth between Greek authorities and the country’s international creditors, which culminated earlier this week in the narrow passage of unpopular new austerity measures through parliament amid violent demonstrations in Athens.

“Given the length, magnitude and nature of required reforms, political and social consensus remains a prerequisite for success,” the Commission said in its report, repeating calls from European leaders on Greece’s opposition to start supporting the bailout program.

For the first time, the Commission’s report also contains a section on debt restructuring _ including a scenario for a 40 percent haircut, a forced reduction in the value of Greek bonds.

The EU has so far ruled out any haircuts on bonds, and in its report the Commission maintains that the negative consequences of a restructuring would outweigh any gains from debt restructuring.

A 40 percent haircut would devastate Greek banks, wiping out the capital cushions and triggering massive deposit flight, the Commission warns. Restructuring Greece’s debt also risks “creating a permanent shift in investor sentiment and lead to self-fulfilling prophecies for other vulnerable Member States,” _ shorthand for already bailed out Ireland and Portugal, as well as weak states like Spain or Italy.

The report highlights that Greece’s destiny will likely be decided by what happens within the country as well as by outside conditions it has little influence over, such as global economic growth that would provide it with a better market for exports.

Those factors are likely to overshadow any decisions on a second bailout package, which merely buys Greece more time, and the exact nature of private-sector involvement, the main open issue in the debates on a new bailout.

Eurozone finance ministries are currently trying to come up with a way of getting banks and other private creditors to contribute to a new aid program. Since a forced restructuring _ or any move that would trigger a negative reaction from rating agencies _ has been ruled out, banks will likely commit to reinvesting some of the money they get back when their existing Greek bonds expire in new debt at somewhat lower interest rates.

However, several analysts have already pointed out that such a scheme would be very costly for Greece and will not reduce its overall debt load.

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Former Missouri Gov. Roger Wilson is out as chief executive of Missouri Employers Mutual Insurance Co., the state’s largest workers’ compensation provider, and a search is under way to replace him.

Wilson had been on administrative leave since May 13.

The departure comes as MEM, which was created in 1993 by the Missouri Legislature to provide insurance for small businesses, faces turmoil over criminal charges filed against two former members of the insurer’s board of directors.

The Columbia, Mo.-based insurer issued a statement Thursday announcing its board of directors decided to make a leadership change, and Wilson is no longer employed by MEM.

Wilson, who lives in Columbia, joined MEM’s board in January 2009 and became its acting president in June 2009. He was named CEO in January 2010.

MEM is not disclosing why Wilson was on leave or why he was removed.

“Since this is a personnel matter, we will not be making any additional comments regarding Mr. Wilson,” MEM’s statement read.

In a separate statement, Wilson said he was proud of his work at MEM. “I wish them very continued success in building on the strong record we compiled together,” Wilson’s statement read. Through a spokesman, Wilson declined to comment further.

Wilson was lieutenant governor of Missouri for two terms, beginning in 1992. He became governor upon the death of Gov. Mel Carnahan in 2000 and served for three months.

MEM’s leadership has gone through a shake-up in recent months. Douglas Morgan, a longtime MEM board member who was named chairman last fall, was indicted in April on charges that he allegedly defrauded Commercial Bank of St. Louis and owes the bank $1.5 million. Morgan also was charged with wire fraud in connection with efforts to build a casino in the Spanish Lake area while he was chairman of the St. Louis County Planning Commission. Morgan, who was removed as MEM’s chairman and resigned from the board on May 30, has pleaded not guilty to the charges.

Attorney Jim Owen of Chesterfield succeeded Morgan as board chairman. Owen is now serving as interim president and CEO of MEM.

Owen said MEM is looking for a chief executive with insurance industry leadership experience and financial expertise.

“Obviously, we want to fill this position as quickly as possible,” Owen said Thursday.

Another former MEM board member, Karen Pletz, was indicted in March on embezzlement charges. Prosecutors allege Pletz fabricated documents over several years authorizing more than $1.4 million in payments from the Kansas City University of Medicine and Biosciences, while she was the school’s president. Pletz was fired from the medical school in 2009.

Pletz, who resigned from MEM’s board in March 2010, has pleaded not guilty to the charges.

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French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde is expected to be chosen as early as Tuesday to be the new leader of the International Monetary Fund.

Lagarde would be the first woman to lead the lending organization. She would replace Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who resigned last month after being charged with sexually assaulting a New York City hotel housekeeper. Lagarde was opposed by Agustin Carstens, a Mexican central banker whose candidacy never caught fire, even among developing countries.

Lagarde has broad support in Europe payday loans guaranteed no fax. And a high-ranking Chinese official said Monday that Beijing supports Lagarde, according to several reports.

U.S. officials haven’t publicly backed any candidate. But most analysts expect the Obama administration to support Lagarde. Combined, the United States, Europe and China hold a majority of votes on the IMF’s board.

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ATHENS, GREECE

The ash cloud from a Chilean volcano that has been erupting for nearly two weeks has circled the globe and come home again.

The returning cloud _ which has disrupted flights in Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Australia and New Zealand on its around-the-world trip _ on Friday forced Chilean officials to cancel domestic flights for the first time since the Cordon Caulle volcano began erupting June 4.

LAN airlines suspended flights to the cities of Puerto Montt, Coyhaique and Punta Arenas in the far south of the South American country. While ash from Cordon Caulle has wreaked havoc with air travel abroad, it had left Chile’s internal flights largely untouched until Friday.

“The tip of the cloud that has traveled around the world is more or less in front of Coyhaique,” said Civil Aviation Office chief Pablo Ortega. Coyhaique is 800 kilometers (500 miles) south of the volcano.

Chilean authorities evacuated 3,500 people living near the volcano after it began erupting but some have since returned.

The governor of Ranco province, Eduardo Holck, said the volcano is emitting a fine ash that is scattering over the Nilahue river valley.

The government, however, maintained a red alert for communities near Cordon Caulle. Chile’s National Geology and Mines Service warned that volcanic activity could begin again “with episodes similar or greater in intensity that was has occurred.”

On Thursday, the government of the Argentine province of Neuquen declared an economic emergency to aid towns where falling ash from Chile’s volcano is endangering livestock and keeping tourists away.

The decree by Gov. Jorge Sapag will mean that those affected can receive tax benefits, among other measures.

The ash has blanketed towns across the border in Argentina.

In the area of Villa La Angostura up to one foot (30 centimeters) of ash has accumulated on the ground. The eruption came just as resorts in the mountain towns were preparing for ski season.

Argentina’s regional airports in Patagonia have also been shut down for more than a week due to the cloud of fine grit, which can damage airplane engines.

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A round of confidence-building corporate deals supported global stocks Tuesday, despite fresh tightening measures in China as inflation there jumped to a three-year high and another savage credit rating downgrade of Greece.

Over the past two months, the economic news flow has turned distinctly negative, particularly from the U.S., and many investors think the surge in share prices in the early part of the year may have been overdone.

Some relief came from corporate deals that prompted investors to look for potential takeover targets. In particular, news that Avis Budget has agreed to buy its European counterpart Avis Europe in a $1 billion deal has helped fuel hopes that further corporate activity will emerge in the days to come, especially now that many companies have shored up their cash positions following the recession.

“Companies with healthy balance sheets are clearly looking for sound investments,” said Will Hedden, sales trader at IG Index.

Though Avis Europe is not part of the FTSE 100 of leading British shares, its takeover helped buoy sentiment and the index was up 0.4 percent at 5,797. Germany’s DAX was 1.6 percent higher at 7,197 while the CAC-40 in France rose 1 percent to 3,846.

Wall Street was poised for a solid opening, too _ Dow futures were up 0.6 percent at 11,954, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 futures rose 0.8 percent to 1,276.

How the U.S. opens could well hinge on retail sales figures, which are released an hour before the bell. U.S. retail sales figures for May will provide an insight into the state of the U.S. economic recovery _ consumer spending accounts for around 70 percent of the U.S. economy.

Expectations are not rosy. The headline figure is expected to show a monthly 0.4 percent decline, which if true would represent the first decline since last June. However, when car sales are stripped out, U.S. retail sales are expected to rise by 0.3 percent.

In currency markets, investors continue to monitor developments surrounding the Greek debt crisis ahead of next week’s meeting of eurozone finance ministers in Brussels, where a fresh Greek bailout is on the agenda.

An unscheduled meeting of the eurogroup ministers Tuesday has stoked speculation that they are preparing to work out a way for the private sector to increase its share in helping Greece, a move the European Central Bank has so far opposed. The meeting takes place just a day after Standard & Poor’s downgraded its rating on Greece’s debt to triple C, the lowest of any sovereign in the world.

Tuesday’s meeting takes place amid signs that policymakers in Europe have divergent views on how to deal with the Greek crisis, with the European Central Bank and the German government, in particular, at odds on getting Greece’s bondholders to share the burden of the bailout.

By late morning London time, the euro was 0.2 percent firmer at $1.4439.

Earlier in Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 index rose 1.1 percent to close at 9,547.79 while South Korea’s Kospi rose 1.4 percent to 2,076.83. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell less than 0.1 percent to 22,496.

In mainland China, shares advanced after the government announced that inflation in May was 5.5 percent. Though that was the highest in almost three years, it was not as high as some forecasts had suggested. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index gained 1.1 percent to 2,730.04, while the Shenzhen Composite Index of China gained 1.6 percent to 1,128.42.

Even though headline inflation did not rise as much as anticipated, China’s central bank increased the reserves banks are required to hold by a further 0.5 percentage point to a record 21.5 percent of deposits. The sixth increase this year is designed to help keep a lid on inflation.

There was some relief in the markets that China did not raise interest rates though that is expected to happen again soon.

“Although Chinese tightening is not generally welcomed by the markets, a gradual slowdown in the economy is a far better scenario than a hard-landing,” said Jane Foley, an analyst at Rabobank International.

Oil prices recouped some recent lost ground though fears over the pace of the global recovery remain.

Benchmark crude for July delivery was up 99 cents to $97.39 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

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Pamela Sampson in Bangkok contributed to this report.

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A top U.S. commander Wednesday said piracy in Somalia can only be defeated if the international community helps restore governance in the poor, lawless African country.

Adm. Robert Willard, chief of the U.S. Pacific Command, said navy patrols alone cannot stop the hijacking of ships if pirates’ bases onshore are allowed to operate without interference. The international community is spending millions of dollars a day maintaining a flotilla of warships to protect key shipping lanes off East Africa.

“The organizers, the funders are the central problem … but the international community has been unable to determine how to tackle the problem onshore,” Willard told a regional forum in Malaysia.

“Clearly, one thing is to help Somalia recover from being the ungoverned state that it is,” he said.

“Unless the international community goes to the root, and not the far end of the problem, it won’t be solved.”

Somalia has not had an effective government since 1991, when warlords overthrew a longtime dictator and then turned on each other, plunging the country into chaos and anarchy. A transitional government, established in 2004 and backed by about 9,000 African Union troops, has been fighting Islamist insurgents paydayloans.

Last year, pirates seized 53 vessels and captured a record 1,181 hostages, almost all of them off the Somali coast. Some 30 ships and more than 600 hostages are still in pirates’ hands.

Pirates are becoming increasingly violent in retaliation to navy interference in their multimillion dollar trade. Earlier this year pirates killed four American hostages while U.S. Navy warships were shadowing the hijacked yacht, the first time pirates had done that.

The U.N. Security Council last month demanded that Somalia’s feuding president and parliament reach agreement quickly on holding elections by August when the mandate for the country’s transitional government ends.

Somali lawmakers _ who in February unilaterally extended their own mandate by three years _ have been vowing for months to hold a presidential vote despite the president’s objections. The president wants to extend his term for a year without a vote.

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Purchases of new houses probably held close to a record low in April, showing the real-estate market remains a weak link in the U.S. expansion, economists said before a report today.

New homes sold at a 300,000 annual pace last month, the same as in March, according to the median forecast of 75 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Purchases sank to a 270,000 pace in February, the weakest in 48 years of data.

The prospect that foreclosures will keep driving down property values means that buyers may continue to shun new houses in favor of previously owned dwellings, hurting builders like D.R. Horton Inc. Unemployment at 9 percent, stagnant wages and credit restrictions add to the headwinds, signaling a housing recovery will take years to unfold.

“Until that overhang of existing homes works its way down, new-home sales will remain depressed and construction as well,” said Steve Blitz, a senior economist at ITG Investment Research Inc. in New York.

The Commerce Department’s report is due at 10 a.m. in Washington. Estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from 280,000 to 320,000.

Stocks of homebuilders have underperformed the broader market. The Standard & Poor’s Supercomposite Homebuilders Index has fallen 1.4 percent so far this year, compared with a 4.7 percent gain for the S&P 500 Index. (SPX)

Douglas Yearley Jr., chief executive officer at Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL), the largest U.S. luxury-home builder, last week said the spring home-selling season has been “disappointing” and that “people are still scared.”

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ST. CHARLES

Facing continued public unhappiness over gas prices, President Barack Obama is directing his administration to ramp up U.S. oil production by extending existing leases in the Gulf of Mexico and off Alaska’s coast and holding more frequent lease sales in a federal petroleum reserve in Alaska.

Obama said Saturday that the measures “make good sense” and will help reduce U.S. consumption of imported oil in the long term. But he acknowledged anew that they won’t help to immediately bring down gasoline prices topping $4 a gallon in many parts of the country.

His announcement followed passage in the Republican-controlled House of three bills _ including two this week _ that would expand and speed up offshore oil and gas drilling. Republicans say the bills are aimed at easing gasoline costs, but they also acknowledge that won’t be immediate.

The White House had announced its opposition to all three bills, which are unlikely to pass the Democratic-controlled Senate, saying the measures would undercut safety reviews and open environmentally sensitive areas to new drilling.

But Obama is adopting some of the bills’ provisions.

Answering the call of Republicans and Democrats from Gulf Coast states, Obama said in his weekly radio and Internet address that he would extend all Gulf leases that were affected by a temporary moratorium on drilling imposed after last year’s BP oil spill. That would give companies additional time to begin drilling.

The administration had been granting extensions case by case, but senior administration officials said the Interior Department would institute a blanket one-year extension.

New safety requirements put in place since the BP spill also have delayed drilling in Alaska, so Obama said he would extend lease terms there for a year as well. An oil lease typically runs 10 years.

Lease sales in the western and central Gulf of Mexico that were postponed last year will be held by the middle of next year, the same time period required by the House. A sale off the Virginia coast still would not happen until 2017 at the earliest online cash advance. But Obama said he would speed up environmental reviews so that seismic studies to determine how much oil and gas lies off the Atlantic Coast can begin.

To further expedite drilling off the Alaskan coast, where such plans by Shell Oil Co. have been delayed by an air pollution permit, Obama said he would create an interagency task force to coordinate the necessary approvals. He also will hold annual lease sales in the vast National Petroleum Reserve on Alaska’s North Slope. Officials said the most recent sale was last year, but that they had not been held on any set schedule.

Republicans dismayed by the lack of progress in Shell’s drilling have drafted legislation to exempt drilling off Alaska from air pollution laws.

House Natural Resources Committee Chairman Doc Hastings of Washington, sponsor of the legislation, said it was “ironic” that Obama “is now taking baby steps in our direction” after the White House and congressional Democrats criticized the bills.

“The president is finally admitting what Republicans have known all along, that increasing the supply of American energy will help lower prices and create jobs,” Hastings said.

Obama also called on Democrats and Republicans to vote to eliminate billions in taxpayer subsidies to oil and gas companies.

In the weekly Republican message, Alabama Rep. Martha Roby said it’s time for Washington to get serious about the challenges facing the country, including straightening out its finances and tackling the gas price issue. She praised the House for passing measures to expand domestic energy production “because when we’re talking about energy, we’re talking about jobs.”

“The greatest threat to our economy, job creation, and the future of our children is to do nothing,” Roby said. “We have to act. It is what we were sent to Washington to do.”

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